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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Milan

S S U U S

3–2

Full-time

Lazio

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 58%

69%

46%

Points per game

2,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

77%

54%

Both score Ø 69%

69%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

38% Possession 62%

9 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Lazio 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	14	10	3	1	+17	33
2	Milan	13	9	4	0	+15	31
3	Napoli	12	8	0	4	+15	24
4	Juventus	13	6	6	1	+12	24
5	Roma	13	7	3	3	+7	24
6	Sassuolo	13	6	5	2	+8	23
7	Atalanta	12	6	3	3	+8	21
8	Lazio	13	6	3	4	+0	21
9	Verona	14	5	5	4	+4	20
10	Sampdoria	13	5	2	6	+0	17
11	Udinese	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	Benevento	13	4	3	6	-8	15
13	Cagliari	13	3	5	5	-5	14
14	Fiorentina	14	3	5	6	-5	14
15	Bologna	13	4	2	7	-6	14
16	Parma	14	2	6	6	-12	12
17	Spezia	13	2	5	6	-9	11
18	Crotone	14	2	3	9	-16	9
19	Torino	13	1	4	8	-10	7
20	Genoa	13	1	4	8	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	7	5	1	1	+6	16
2	Roma	6	4	2	0	+10	14
3	Napoli	6	4	0	2	+10	12
4	Milan	6	3	3	0	+7	12
5	Juventus	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Verona	8	3	2	3	+2	11
7	Atalanta	6	3	1	2	+5	10
8	Sassuolo	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Fiorentina	7	2	3	2	+0	9
10	Bologna	6	3	0	3	-1	9
11	Cagliari	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Lazio	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Benevento	7	2	2	3	-4	8
14	Sampdoria	6	2	1	3	+2	7
15	Udinese	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Crotone	7	2	1	4	-5	7
17	Parma	7	1	4	2	-5	7
18	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-5	4
19	Torino	7	0	3	4	-5	3
20	Spezia	6	0	3	3	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	7	6	1	0	+8	19
2	Inter	7	5	2	0	+11	17
3	Sassuolo	6	4	2	0	+8	14
4	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+9	13
5	Lazio	6	4	1	1	+3	13
6	Napoli	6	4	0	2	+5	12
7	Atalanta	6	3	2	1	+3	11
8	Sampdoria	7	3	1	3	-2	10
9	Roma	7	3	1	3	-3	10
10	Verona	6	2	3	1	+2	9
11	Udinese	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Spezia	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Benevento	6	2	1	3	-4	7
14	Cagliari	7	1	3	3	-5	6
15	Fiorentina	7	1	2	4	-5	5
16	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-5	5
17	Parma	7	1	2	4	-7	5
18	Torino	6	1	1	4	-5	4
19	Genoa	6	0	3	3	-9	3
20	Crotone	7	0	2	5	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.