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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Man City

S S S U S

0–0

Full-time

Arsenal

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

2,7

3,0

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 70%

68%

71%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

61%

68%

Both score Ø 57%

64%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

2,3

2,5

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,02 xG 0,66

73% Possession 27%

12 Shots 6

1 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 20

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Arsenal 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	29	20	7	2	+40	+31.1	67
2	Arsenal	28	20	4	4	+46	+37.8	64
3	Man City	28	19	6	3	+35	+29.9	63
4	Aston Villa	30	18	5	7	+20	+9.7	59
5	Tottenham	29	17	5	7	+18	+4.8	56
6	Man United	29	15	3	11	+0	-7.3	48
7	West Ham	30	12	8	10	-5	-12.8	44
8	Newcastle	29	13	4	12	+12	+4.8	43
9	Brighton	29	11	9	9	+5	+4.7	42
10	Wolves	29	12	5	12	-4	-9.8	41
11	Chelsea	28	11	7	10	+2	+12.3	40
12	Fulham	30	11	6	13	-1	-11.7	39
13	Bournemouth	29	10	8	11	-10	-1.9	38
14	Everton	29	8	7	14	-11	+2.3	31
15	Crystal Palace	29	7	9	13	-15	-6.6	30
16	Brentford	30	7	6	17	-13	+3.4	27
17	Nott'm Forest	30	6	8	16	-16	-5.9	26
18	Luton	30	5	7	18	-19	-27.6	22
19	Burnley	30	4	6	20	-34	-25.9	18
20	Sheffield United	29	3	6	20	-50	-31.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	3	0	+27	+29.6	39
2	Arsenal	14	11	2	1	+23	+22.6	35
3	Man City	14	10	4	0	+22	+15.5	34
4	Aston Villa	15	11	1	3	+18	+11.5	34
5	Tottenham	15	11	0	4	+11	+7.7	33
6	Newcastle	15	10	2	3	+19	+16.3	32
7	Fulham	15	9	1	5	+14	+2.7	28
8	Brighton	14	7	6	1	+12	+8.1	27
9	Man United	14	8	1	5	+1	+2.6	25
10	West Ham	15	6	6	3	+3	-3.6	24
11	Wolves	14	7	3	4	+1	-4.7	24
12	Chelsea	14	6	4	4	+3	+13.6	22
13	Bournemouth	15	5	5	5	-4	+1.3	20
14	Brentford	15	4	5	6	-5	+5.2	17
15	Crystal Palace	14	4	4	6	-1	+2.7	16
16	Nott'm Forest	15	4	4	7	-2	+1.0	16
17	Everton	14	3	4	7	-3	+9.0	13
18	Luton	15	3	3	9	-4	-4.1	12
19	Sheffield United	15	2	3	10	-30	-13.6	9
20	Burnley	15	2	2	11	-20	-5.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	9	2	3	+23	+15.2	29
2	Man City	14	9	2	3	+13	+14.3	29
3	Liverpool	14	8	4	2	+13	+1.6	28
4	Aston Villa	15	7	4	4	+2	-1.8	25
5	Tottenham	14	6	5	3	+7	-2.9	23
6	Man United	15	7	2	6	-1	-9.9	23
7	West Ham	15	6	2	7	-8	-9.2	20
8	Chelsea	14	5	3	6	-1	-1.3	18
9	Bournemouth	14	5	3	6	-6	-3.2	18
10	Everton	15	5	3	7	-8	-6.6	18
11	Wolves	15	5	2	8	-5	-5.1	17
12	Brighton	15	4	3	8	-7	-3.4	15
13	Crystal Palace	15	3	5	7	-14	-9.3	14
14	Newcastle	14	3	2	9	-7	-11.5	11
15	Fulham	15	2	5	8	-15	-14.4	11
16	Brentford	15	3	1	11	-8	-1.8	10
17	Burnley	15	2	4	9	-14	-20.5	10
18	Nott'm Forest	15	2	4	9	-14	-6.9	10
19	Luton	15	2	4	9	-15	-23.5	10
20	Sheffield United	14	1	3	10	-20	-17.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.