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Serie A
Referee: M Fabbri
Napoli
T S U S S
1–1
Full-time
Cagliari
T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Cagliari
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,8
3,2
Scored
2,5
1,5
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,2
This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 44%
64%
24%
Points per game
2,0
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
58%
42%
Both score Ø 54%
52%
55%
Average goals
3,3
2,9
Scored
2,2
1,2
Conceded
1,1
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,1
-0,5
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%
18 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 1
4 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Napoli 4. · Cagliari 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 34 25 7 2 +45 82
2 Milan 34 21 6 7 +21 69
3 Atalanta 33 20 8 5 +39 68
4 Napoli 33 21 3 9 +36 66
5 Juventus 33 19 9 5 +35 66
6 Lazio 33 20 4 9 +11 64
7 Roma 33 16 7 10 +7 55
8 Sassuolo 33 14 10 9 +5 52
9 Verona 34 11 9 14 -1 42
10 Sampdoria 33 12 6 15 -4 42
11 Udinese 33 10 9 14 -6 39
12 Bologna 33 10 8 15 -9 38
13 Genoa 34 8 12 14 -12 36
14 Fiorentina 33 8 10 15 -12 34
15 Spezia 34 8 10 16 -20 34
16 Torino 32 6 13 13 -10 31
17 Cagliari 33 8 7 18 -17 31
18 Benevento 34 7 10 17 -31 31
19 Parma 33 3 11 19 -34 20
20 Crotone 34 5 3 26 -43 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Napoli Cagliari
1–0 V. Osimhen
L. Insigne
13′
33′
🟨 Diego Godín
34′
🟨 Alessandro Deiola
Half-time 1–0
46′
🟨 Leonardo Pavoletti
Diego Demme 🟨
55′
M. Politano 🔁
↦ H. Lozano
68′
70′
🔁 K. Asamoah
↦ A. Deiola
D. Mertens 🔁
↦ V. Osimhen
76′
76′
🔁 G. Simeone
↦ L. Ceppitelli
T. Bakayoko 🔁
↦ P. Zieliński
81′
E. Elmas 🔁
↦ Fabián Ruiz
81′
81′
🔁 A. Calabresi
↦ G. Zappa
81′
🔁 A. Cerri
↦ C. Lykogiannis
94′
N. Nández 1–1
A. Duncan
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Napoli

4-2-3-1
1 A. Meret G
44 K. Manolas D
26 K. Koulibaly D
23 E. Hysaj D
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
4 D. Demme M
20 P. Zieliński M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
24 L. Insigne M
11 H. Lozano M
9 V. Osimhen F
Bench (12)
21 M. Politano
14 D. Mertens
5 T. Bakayoko
7 E. Elmas
46 H. Idasiak
16 N. Contini Baranovsky
58 A. Cioffi
37 A. Petagna
3 K. Zedadka
6 Mário Rui
19 N. Maksimović
33 A. Rrahmani

Coach: G. Gattuso

Cagliari

4-1-4-1
28 A. Cragno G
2 D. Godín D
23 L. Ceppitelli D
22 C. Lykogiannis M
25 G. Zappa D
44 A. Carboni D
4 R. Nainggolan M
32 A. Duncan M
14 A. Deiola M
18 N. Nández M
30 L. Pavoletti F
Bench (11)
19 K. Asamoah
9 G. Simeone
16 A. Calabresi
27 A. Cerri
1 S. Aresti
15 R. Klavan
3 A. Tripaldelli
10 João Pedro
24 D. Rugani
40 S. Walukiewicz
31 G. Vicario

Coach: L. Semplici

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,40
U ✓
4,90
B
7,74
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,59
U2,5 ✓
2,38
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Fabbri · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.