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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Salernitana

T T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Lecce

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salernitana Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

0,7

Conceded

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 13%

18%

Points per game

0,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

64%

43%

Both score Ø 56%

57%

54%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

0,8

0,9

Conceded

2,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,19 xG 1,24

71% Possession 29%

15 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Salernitana 20. · Lecce 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	28	24	3	1	+57	+37.7	75
2	Milan	28	18	5	5	+20	+9.2	59
3	Juventus	28	17	7	4	+21	+23.1	58
4	Bologna	29	15	9	5	+17	+8.4	54
5	Roma	28	14	6	8	+19	+11.4	48
6	Atalanta	28	14	5	9	+19	+10.6	47
7	Napoli	28	12	8	8	+11	+17.9	44
8	Fiorentina	28	12	7	9	+9	+2.5	43
9	Monza	29	11	9	9	-4	-9.4	42
10	Torino	29	10	11	8	+2	+2.9	41
11	Lazio	28	12	4	12	+2	+1.3	40
12	Genoa	28	8	9	11	-5	-4.8	33
13	Udinese	29	4	15	10	-16	-8.1	27
14	Verona	28	6	8	14	-11	-9.9	26
15	Cagliari	29	6	8	15	-21	-10.1	26
16	Lecce	28	5	10	13	-20	-13.0	25
17	Empoli	29	6	7	16	-21	-9.6	25
18	Frosinone	28	6	6	16	-22	-12.2	24
19	Sassuolo	28	6	5	17	-22	-14.6	23
20	Salernitana	28	2	8	18	-35	-33.4	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	12	1	1	+29	+23.6	37
2	Bologna	15	11	2	2	+18	+6.4	35
3	Milan	14	10	2	2	+15	+7.3	32
4	Atalanta	14	10	1	3	+21	+12.1	31
5	Juventus	14	9	4	1	+12	+14.4	31
6	Roma	14	9	3	2	+18	+10.1	30
7	Fiorentina	14	8	3	3	+11	+7.8	27
8	Torino	14	6	6	2	+6	+7.6	24
9	Monza	15	6	5	4	+1	-3.4	23
10	Napoli	14	6	4	4	+2	+10.3	22
11	Lazio	14	6	3	5	+2	+6.3	21
12	Frosinone	14	6	3	5	+0	-0.9	21
13	Genoa	14	5	5	4	+0	-1.5	20
14	Cagliari	14	5	4	5	-4	+4.9	19
15	Lecce	14	5	4	5	-7	-2.5	19
16	Verona	13	4	5	4	-1	-2.1	17
17	Sassuolo	14	4	3	7	-7	-5.1	15
18	Udinese	15	1	9	5	-6	+2.0	12
19	Empoli	15	2	4	9	-11	-4.1	10
20	Salernitana	14	1	4	9	-16	-11.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	12	2	0	+28	+14.1	38
2	Juventus	14	8	3	3	+9	+8.7	27
3	Milan	14	8	3	3	+5	+1.9	27
4	Napoli	14	6	4	4	+9	+7.6	22
5	Lazio	14	6	1	7	+0	-5.0	19
6	Bologna	14	4	7	3	-1	+2.0	19
7	Monza	14	5	4	5	-5	-6.0	19
8	Roma	14	5	3	6	+1	+1.2	18
9	Torino	15	4	5	6	-4	-4.7	17
10	Atalanta	14	4	4	6	-2	-1.5	16
11	Fiorentina	14	4	4	6	-2	-5.3	16
12	Empoli	14	4	3	7	-10	-5.5	15
13	Udinese	14	3	6	5	-10	-10.1	15
14	Genoa	14	3	4	7	-5	-3.3	13
15	Verona	15	2	3	10	-10	-7.8	9
16	Sassuolo	14	2	2	10	-15	-9.5	8
17	Cagliari	15	1	4	10	-17	-14.9	7
18	Salernitana	14	1	4	9	-19	-21.9	7
19	Lecce	14	0	6	8	-13	-10.5	6
20	Frosinone	14	0	3	11	-22	-11.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.