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Serie A
Referee: R Abisso
Salernitana
T T S T T
0–2
Full-time
Lazio
U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salernitana Lazio
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,5
2,0
Scored
0,8
1,2
Conceded
2,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,8
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 37%
23%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
64%
50%
Both score Ø 48%
55%
41%
Average goals
3,0
2,5
Scored
1,1
1,7
Conceded
1,9
0,9
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,41 xG 2,99
35% Possession 65%
9 Shots 21
2 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 7
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 9
1 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 7
5 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Salernitana 16. · Lazio 7.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Napoli 23 20 2 1 +41 +4.4 62
2 Inter 23 15 2 6 +17 +6.1 47
3 Juventus 22 13 5 4 +17 +3.1 44
4 Milan 23 13 5 5 +9 -1.3 44
5 Atalanta 23 12 5 6 +16 +2.4 41
6 Roma 22 12 5 5 +10 +2.7 41
7 Lazio 22 11 6 5 +18 -0.5 39
8 Bologna 23 9 5 9 -3 -0.7 32
9 Udinese 23 7 9 7 +3 -1.2 30
10 Torino 22 8 6 8 -1 +0.3 30
11 Monza 23 8 5 10 -3 -1.6 29
12 Lecce 23 6 9 8 -2 -1.0 27
13 Empoli 22 6 9 7 -7 -0.5 27
14 Fiorentina 22 6 6 10 -6 +0.8 24
15 Sassuolo 23 6 6 11 -9 -0.2 24
16 Salernitana 22 5 6 11 -17 -3.3 21
17 Spezia 22 4 7 11 -18 -3.5 19
18 Verona 22 4 5 13 -13 -0.9 17
19 Sampdoria 23 2 5 16 -27 -1.8 11
20 Cremonese 22 0 8 14 -25 -3.3 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Salernitana Lazio
44′
🟨 Matías Vecino
Half-time 0–0
D. Valencia 🔁
↦ T. Vilhena
46′
Lorenzo Pirola 🟨
55′
G. Kastanos 🔁
↦ F. Bonazzoli
59′
60′
C. Immobile 0–1
A. Marušić
68′
ℹ️ Ciro Immobile
VAR: Penalty confirmed
69′
C. Immobile 0–2
M. Lovato 🔁
↦ L. Pirola
75′
E. Botheim 🔁
↦ K. Piątek
75′
J. Sambia 🔁
↦ D. Črnigoj
76′
77′
🔁 T. Bašić
↦ M. Vecino
78′
🔁 L. Romero
↦ Pedro
Diego Valencia 🟨
83′
86′
🔁 M. Cancellieri
↦ C. Immobile
Dylan Bronn 🟨
88′
Dylan Bronn 🟥
88′
Flavius Daniliuc 🟨
91′
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Salernitana

3-4-2-1
33 L. Sepe G
2 D. Bronn D
5 F. Daniliuc D
98 L. Pirola D
87 A. Candreva M
18 L. Coulibaly M
22 D. Črnigoj M
3 D. Bradarić M
9 F. Bonazzoli F
10 T. Vilhena F
99 K. Piątek F
Bench (11)
14 D. Valencia
20 G. Kastanos
66 M. Lovato
11 E. Botheim
6 J. Sambia
8 E. Bohinen
1 V. Fiorillo
41 H. Nicolussi
23 N. Gyömbér
39 A. Iervolino
13 G. Ochoa

Coach: D. Nicola

Lazio

4-3-3
94 I. Provedel G
77 A. Marušić D
15 N. Casale D
4 Patric D
23 E. Hysaj D
5 M. Vecino M
32 D. Cataldi M
10 Luis Alberto M
7 Felipe Anderson F
17 C. Immobile F
9 Pedro F
Bench (11)
88 T. Bašić
18 L. Romero
11 M. Cancellieri
6 Marcos Antônio
3 L. Pellegrini
21 S. Milinković-Savić
1 Luís Maximiano
34 Mario Gila
96 M. Fares
29 M. Lazzari
31 M. Adamonis

Coach: M. Sarri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
5,14
U
3,90
B ✓
1,68
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,90
U2,5 ✓
1,92
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

R Abisso · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.