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Serie A

Referee: L Zufferli

Fiorentina

T S S T U

2–1

Full-time

Monza

T U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 34/35 matches

Win Ø 36%

41%

31%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

47%

40%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

46%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,51 xG 0,67

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 9. · Monza 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	36	29	5	2	+67	+46.1	92
2	Milan	36	22	8	6	+29	+18.3	74
3	Bologna	36	18	13	5	+24	+11.1	67
4	Juventus	36	18	13	5	+21	+26.0	67
5	Atalanta	35	19	6	10	+26	+14.5	63
6	Roma	36	17	9	10	+19	+10.6	60
7	Lazio	36	18	5	13	+10	+5.0	59
8	Napoli	36	13	12	11	+7	+21.4	51
9	Fiorentina	34	14	8	12	+12	+3.3	50
10	Torino	36	12	14	10	+1	+3.3	50
11	Genoa	36	11	13	12	-1	-7.3	46
12	Monza	35	11	12	12	-8	-13.5	45
13	Lecce	36	8	13	15	-20	-9.5	37
14	Verona	36	8	10	18	-14	-11.8	34
15	Udinese	36	5	18	13	-17	-9.9	33
16	Cagliari	36	7	12	17	-27	-12.9	33
17	Frosinone	36	7	11	18	-25	-14.5	32
18	Empoli	36	8	8	20	-26	-18.0	32
19	Sassuolo	36	7	8	21	-30	-20.5	29
20	Salernitana	36	2	10	24	-48	-41.9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	3	1	+33	+27.6	45
2	Bologna	18	12	4	2	+21	+9.1	40
3	Milan	18	12	3	3	+21	+12.0	39
4	Atalanta	17	12	2	3	+24	+15.2	38
5	Roma	18	11	4	3	+18	+12.2	37
6	Juventus	18	10	7	1	+13	+19.3	37
7	Lazio	18	10	3	5	+9	+9.0	33
8	Fiorentina	17	9	4	4	+14	+9.1	31
9	Torino	18	7	9	2	+7	+8.3	30
10	Genoa	18	7	6	5	+3	-2.1	27
11	Frosinone	18	7	4	7	-3	-3.7	25
12	Cagliari	18	6	7	5	-3	+4.9	25
13	Monza	18	6	6	6	-2	-5.3	24
14	Napoli	18	6	6	6	-3	+12.4	24
15	Lecce	18	6	6	6	-8	-0.7	24
16	Verona	18	6	5	7	-3	-4.3	23
17	Sassuolo	18	5	5	8	-9	-9.6	20
18	Empoli	18	4	5	9	-9	-6.5	17
19	Udinese	18	1	10	7	-8	-2.1	13
20	Salernitana	18	1	5	12	-20	-15.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	15	2	1	+34	+18.5	47
2	Milan	18	10	5	3	+8	+6.3	35
3	Juventus	18	8	6	4	+8	+6.6	30
4	Napoli	18	7	6	5	+10	+9.0	27
5	Bologna	18	6	9	3	+3	+2.0	27
6	Lazio	18	8	2	8	+1	-4.0	26
7	Atalanta	18	7	4	7	+2	-0.7	25
8	Roma	18	6	5	7	+1	-1.6	23
9	Monza	17	5	6	6	-6	-8.3	21
10	Torino	18	5	5	8	-6	-5.0	20
11	Udinese	18	4	8	6	-9	-7.8	20
12	Fiorentina	17	5	4	8	-2	-5.8	19
13	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-4	-5.2	19
14	Empoli	18	4	3	11	-17	-11.5	15
15	Lecce	18	2	7	9	-12	-8.8	13
16	Verona	18	2	5	11	-11	-7.5	11
17	Sassuolo	18	2	3	13	-21	-10.8	9
18	Cagliari	18	1	5	12	-24	-17.8	8
19	Salernitana	18	1	5	12	-28	-26.1	8
20	Frosinone	18	0	7	11	-22	-10.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.