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Serie A

Referee: A Rapuano

Verona

U T U S T

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Verona Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 34/33 matches

Win Ø 32%

21%

42%

Points per game

0,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

44%

45%

Both score Ø 51%

53%

48%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,89 xG 0,94

38% Possession 62%

9 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 2

3 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Verona 15. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	35	28	5	2	+62	+45.6	89
2	Milan	34	21	7	6	+25	+14.7	70
3	Juventus	34	18	11	5	+21	+25.0	65
4	Bologna	35	17	13	5	+22	+11.2	64
5	Roma	34	17	8	9	+20	+11.7	59
6	Atalanta	33	17	6	10	+24	+11.5	57
7	Lazio	35	17	5	13	+8	+4.6	56
8	Fiorentina	33	14	8	11	+13	+4.2	50
9	Napoli	34	13	11	10	+9	+21.2	50
10	Torino	35	11	14	10	+0	+4.1	47
11	Monza	35	11	12	12	-8	-13.5	45
12	Genoa	34	10	12	12	-2	-4.7	42
13	Lecce	35	8	13	14	-18	-8.4	37
14	Cagliari	35	7	12	16	-23	-11.1	33
15	Verona	34	7	10	17	-14	-13.5	31
16	Frosinone	34	7	10	17	-20	-15.0	31
17	Empoli	34	8	7	19	-24	-16.6	31
18	Udinese	34	4	17	13	-19	-10.9	29
19	Sassuolo	35	7	8	20	-29	-21.3	29
20	Salernitana	34	2	9	23	-47	-39.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	3	1	+33	+27.6	45
2	Bologna	18	12	4	2	+21	+9.1	40
3	Roma	17	11	3	3	+18	+11.6	36
4	Juventus	17	10	6	1	+13	+17.8	36
5	Atalanta	16	11	2	3	+23	+13.6	35
6	Milan	16	11	2	3	+17	+8.4	35
7	Fiorentina	17	9	4	4	+14	+9.1	31
8	Lazio	17	9	3	5	+7	+8.6	30
9	Torino	18	7	9	2	+7	+8.3	30
10	Frosinone	17	7	4	6	+2	-3.2	25
11	Cagliari	18	6	7	5	-3	+4.9	25
12	Genoa	17	6	6	5	+2	-1.3	24
13	Napoli	17	6	6	5	-1	+12.3	24
14	Monza	18	6	6	6	-2	-5.3	24
15	Lecce	17	6	6	5	-6	+0.4	24
16	Verona	16	5	5	6	-3	-6.0	20
17	Sassuolo	18	5	5	8	-9	-9.6	20
18	Empoli	17	4	4	9	-9	-5.5	16
19	Udinese	17	1	9	7	-8	-2.0	12
20	Salernitana	17	1	5	11	-19	-14.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	14	2	1	+29	+18.0	44
2	Milan	18	10	5	3	+8	+6.3	35
3	Juventus	17	8	5	4	+8	+7.2	29
4	Napoli	17	7	5	5	+10	+8.9	26
5	Lazio	18	8	2	8	+1	-4.0	26
6	Bologna	17	5	9	3	+1	+2.1	24
7	Roma	17	6	5	6	+2	+0.1	23
8	Atalanta	17	6	4	7	+1	-2.0	22
9	Monza	17	5	6	6	-6	-8.3	21
10	Fiorentina	16	5	4	7	-1	-4.8	19
11	Genoa	17	4	6	7	-4	-3.3	18
12	Torino	17	4	5	8	-7	-4.2	17
13	Udinese	17	3	8	6	-11	-8.9	17
14	Empoli	17	4	3	10	-15	-11.1	15
15	Lecce	18	2	7	9	-12	-8.8	13
16	Verona	18	2	5	11	-11	-7.5	11
17	Sassuolo	17	2	3	12	-20	-11.6	9
18	Cagliari	17	1	5	11	-20	-16.0	8
19	Salernitana	17	1	4	12	-28	-24.5	7
20	Frosinone	17	0	6	11	-22	-11.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.