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Serie A

Referee: J Sacchi

Monza

U U T U S

3–2

Full-time

Fiorentina

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 35%

33%

37%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

47%

37%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,54 xG 1,25

45% Possession 55%

13 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

18 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 13. · Fiorentina 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	30	24	3	3	+45	+8.2	75
2	Lazio	31	18	7	6	+28	+3.0	61
3	Juventus	30	18	5	7	+22	+6.8	59
4	Roma	30	17	5	8	+16	+6.1	56
5	Inter	31	17	3	11	+17	+14.6	54
6	Milan	30	15	8	7	+12	+3.8	53
7	Atalanta	30	14	7	9	+13	+3.0	49
8	Bologna	31	12	8	11	+1	-2.3	44
9	Fiorentina	30	11	9	10	+2	+4.5	42
10	Torino	31	11	9	11	-4	+1.4	42
11	Sassuolo	31	11	7	13	-8	+2.8	40
12	Udinese	30	9	12	9	+0	-2.1	39
13	Monza	30	10	8	12	-6	-2.3	38
14	Salernitana	31	7	12	12	-13	-8.6	33
15	Empoli	31	7	11	13	-15	-6.8	32
16	Lecce	30	6	10	14	-10	-0.8	28
17	Spezia	30	5	11	14	-23	-8.0	26
18	Verona	30	6	7	17	-18	-4.4	25
19	Cremonese	30	3	10	17	-27	-8.3	19
20	Sampdoria	31	3	8	20	-32	-10.5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	15	11	3	1	+22	+5.2	36
2	Napoli	15	11	2	2	+20	+2.6	35
3	Inter	16	11	0	5	+18	+7.2	33
4	Roma	15	10	1	4	+14	+1.8	31
5	Milan	14	9	3	2	+11	+4.9	30
6	Lazio	16	9	3	4	+11	+0.3	30
7	Bologna	16	7	6	3	+10	+0.2	27
8	Sassuolo	15	7	3	5	+3	+0.2	24
9	Fiorentina	16	6	6	4	+0	+5.9	24
10	Atalanta	14	6	3	5	+6	+5.4	21
11	Udinese	14	4	8	2	+7	+3.2	20
12	Salernitana	16	5	5	6	+2	-4.7	20
13	Torino	15	5	5	5	-2	+2.4	20
14	Verona	16	6	2	8	-5	-1.7	20
15	Monza	15	5	4	6	+1	+1.0	19
16	Empoli	15	5	4	6	-5	-1.4	19
17	Spezia	15	3	7	5	-8	-6.4	16
18	Lecce	15	2	7	6	-5	+1.4	13
19	Cremonese	15	2	3	10	-16	-3.8	9
20	Sampdoria	16	1	5	10	-14	-0.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	15	13	1	1	+25	+5.6	40
2	Lazio	15	9	4	2	+17	+2.7	31
3	Atalanta	16	8	4	4	+7	-2.4	28
4	Roma	15	7	4	4	+2	+4.3	25
5	Milan	16	6	5	5	+1	-1.1	23
6	Juventus	15	7	2	6	+0	+1.7	23
7	Torino	16	6	4	6	-2	-1.0	22
8	Inter	15	6	3	6	-1	+7.4	21
9	Monza	15	5	4	6	-7	-3.4	19
10	Udinese	16	5	4	7	-7	-5.3	19
11	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+2	-1.3	18
12	Bologna	15	5	2	8	-9	-2.5	17
13	Sassuolo	16	4	4	8	-11	+2.5	16
14	Lecce	15	4	3	8	-5	-2.2	15
15	Empoli	16	2	7	7	-10	-5.3	13
16	Salernitana	15	2	7	6	-15	-3.9	13
17	Cremonese	15	1	7	7	-11	-4.5	10
18	Spezia	15	2	4	9	-15	-1.7	10
19	Sampdoria	15	2	3	10	-18	-9.9	9
20	Verona	14	0	5	9	-13	-2.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.