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Coppa Italia

Referee: F La Penna

Atalanta

T S U T S

4–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

T U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,3

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Coppa Italia · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Atalanta 8. · Fiorentina 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bologna	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Juventus	4	3	0	1	+10	9
3	Frosinone	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Lazio	4	3	0	1	+1	9
5	Parma	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Reggiana	3	2	0	1	+4	6
7	Cremonese	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Salernitana	3	2	0	1	+0	6
11	Cagliari	3	2	0	1	-1	6
12	Fiorentina	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Sassuolo	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Milan	2	1	0	1	+2	3
16	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	FeralpiSalo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
20	Roma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
21	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
22	Catanzaro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
23	Spezia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
24	Venezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Cesena	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Sampdoria	2	0	1	1	-4	1
29	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Palermo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Vicenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Como	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Foggia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Ascoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Crotone	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-3	0
42	Bari	1	0	0	1	-3	0
43	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-4	0
44	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Lazio	3	3	0	0	+3	9
3	Salernitana	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Fiorentina	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Reggiana	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+2	3
10	Milan	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Verona	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Roma	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	FeralpiSalo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Frosinone	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Catanzaro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
19	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Cesena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Sassuolo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-3	0
28	Bari	1	0	0	1	-3	0
29	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Parma	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Frosinone	3	2	0	1	+1	6
3	Bologna	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Reggiana	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Venezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Palermo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Cremonese	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Juventus	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	FeralpiSalo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Vicenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Como	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Foggia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Ascoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Crotone	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Verona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Cesena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
31	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-4	0
32	Sampdoria	1	0	0	1	-4	0
33	Salernitana	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.