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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Genoa

U S T U U

2–1

Full-time

Lecce

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 23%

25%

21%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

36%

43%

Both score Ø 41%

46%

36%

Average goals

2,2

2,4

Scored

0,9

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,04 xG 1,36

44% Possession 56%

8 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 8

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 12. · Lecce 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	28	18	7	3	+36	+27.3	61
2	Napoli	28	18	6	4	+22	+18.6	60
3	Atalanta	28	17	7	4	+37	+24.3	58
4	Juventus	28	13	13	2	+20	+12.0	52
5	Lazio	28	15	6	7	+14	+13.3	51
6	Bologna	28	13	11	4	+10	+10.6	50
7	Roma	28	13	7	8	+13	+9.1	46
8	Fiorentina	28	13	6	9	+13	+5.2	45
9	Milan	28	12	8	8	+10	+17.2	44
10	Udinese	28	11	7	10	-3	-7.4	40
11	Torino	28	8	11	9	-1	-13.4	35
12	Genoa	28	7	11	10	-10	-5.9	32
13	Como	28	7	8	13	-10	+0.4	29
14	Cagliari	28	6	8	14	-15	-11.2	26
15	Verona	28	8	2	18	-30	-16.5	26
16	Lecce	28	6	7	15	-26	-20.4	25
17	Parma	28	5	9	14	-14	-14.4	24
18	Empoli	28	4	10	14	-22	-15.1	22
19	Venezia	28	3	10	15	-19	-17.0	19
20	Monza	28	2	8	18	-25	-16.8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	10	3	1	+16	+13.6	33
2	Napoli	14	10	2	2	+11	+15.7	32
3	Bologna	14	8	5	1	+11	+13.3	29
4	Roma	14	9	1	4	+17	+8.5	28
5	Juventus	15	7	7	1	+10	+7.8	28
6	Fiorentina	14	8	3	3	+8	+7.9	27
7	Lazio	14	7	5	2	+8	+8.4	26
8	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+13	+11.7	25
9	Milan	14	6	6	2	+10	+10.0	24
10	Udinese	14	7	2	5	+2	-3.4	23
11	Como	14	5	4	5	+0	+1.7	19
12	Torino	13	4	5	4	+0	-6.1	17
13	Genoa	14	3	7	4	-2	-1.4	16
14	Parma	15	4	4	7	-3	-2.1	16
15	Cagliari	15	4	4	7	-8	-2.6	16
16	Lecce	14	3	5	6	-14	-6.7	14
17	Venezia	13	3	4	6	-3	-1.7	13
18	Verona	14	4	1	9	-19	-5.3	13
19	Empoli	14	1	5	8	-15	-7.2	8
20	Monza	14	1	4	9	-9	-4.8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	15	10	3	2	+24	+12.6	33
2	Inter	14	8	4	2	+20	+13.7	28
3	Napoli	14	8	4	2	+11	+2.8	28
4	Lazio	14	8	1	5	+6	+4.9	25
5	Juventus	13	6	6	1	+10	+4.2	24
6	Bologna	14	5	6	3	-1	-2.7	21
7	Milan	14	6	2	6	+0	+7.1	20
8	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+5	-2.7	18
9	Torino	15	4	6	5	-1	-7.3	18
10	Roma	14	4	6	4	-4	+0.6	18
11	Udinese	14	4	5	5	-5	-4.0	17
12	Genoa	14	4	4	6	-8	-4.5	16
13	Empoli	14	3	5	6	-7	-7.8	14
14	Verona	14	4	1	9	-11	-11.2	13
15	Lecce	14	3	2	9	-12	-13.6	11
16	Cagliari	13	2	4	7	-7	-8.6	10
17	Como	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.3	10
18	Parma	13	1	5	7	-11	-12.3	8
19	Monza	14	1	4	9	-16	-11.9	7
20	Venezia	15	0	6	9	-16	-15.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.