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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Lecce

S U U T T

2–3

Full-time

Milan

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,2

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 32%

22%

41%

Points per game

0,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

41%

56%

Both score Ø 45%

33%

56%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

0,7

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,87 xG 3,60

30% Possession 70%

11 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 7

13 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 16. · Milan 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	27	17	7	3	+35	+25.4	58
2	Napoli	27	17	6	4	+21	+16.8	57
3	Atalanta	27	16	7	4	+33	+21.3	55
4	Juventus	27	13	13	1	+24	+15.1	52
5	Lazio	27	15	5	7	+14	+13.9	50
6	Bologna	27	12	11	4	+9	+10.4	47
7	Fiorentina	27	13	6	8	+14	+7.0	45
8	Roma	27	12	7	8	+12	+7.2	43
9	Milan	27	11	8	8	+9	+14.4	41
10	Udinese	27	11	6	10	-3	-8.0	39
11	Torino	28	8	11	9	-1	-13.4	35
12	Genoa	28	7	11	10	-10	-5.9	32
13	Como	28	7	8	13	-10	+0.4	29
14	Cagliari	28	6	8	14	-15	-11.2	26
15	Verona	27	8	2	17	-29	-16.4	26
16	Lecce	27	6	7	14	-25	-17.6	25
17	Parma	28	5	9	14	-14	-14.4	24
18	Empoli	27	4	10	13	-21	-13.2	22
19	Venezia	28	3	10	15	-19	-17.0	19
20	Monza	27	2	8	17	-24	-14.8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	9	3	1	+15	+11.7	30
2	Bologna	14	8	5	1	+11	+13.3	29
3	Napoli	13	9	2	2	+10	+14.0	29
4	Roma	14	9	1	4	+17	+8.5	28
5	Juventus	14	7	7	0	+14	+10.8	28
6	Fiorentina	14	8	3	3	+8	+7.9	27
7	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+13	+11.7	25
8	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+8	+9.0	25
9	Milan	14	6	6	2	+10	+10.0	24
10	Udinese	14	7	2	5	+2	-3.4	23
11	Como	14	5	4	5	+0	+1.7	19
12	Torino	13	4	5	4	+0	-6.1	17
13	Genoa	14	3	7	4	-2	-1.4	16
14	Parma	15	4	4	7	-3	-2.1	16
15	Cagliari	15	4	4	7	-8	-2.6	16
16	Lecce	13	3	5	5	-13	-4.0	14
17	Venezia	13	3	4	6	-3	-1.7	13
18	Verona	13	4	1	8	-18	-5.1	13
19	Empoli	13	1	5	7	-14	-5.4	8
20	Monza	14	1	4	9	-9	-4.8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	14	9	3	2	+20	+9.6	30
2	Inter	14	8	4	2	+20	+13.7	28
3	Napoli	14	8	4	2	+11	+2.8	28
4	Lazio	14	8	1	5	+6	+4.9	25
5	Juventus	13	6	6	1	+10	+4.2	24
6	Fiorentina	13	5	3	5	+6	-0.9	18
7	Torino	15	4	6	5	-1	-7.3	18
8	Bologna	13	4	6	3	-2	-2.8	18
9	Milan	13	5	2	6	-1	+4.4	17
10	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-5	-4.6	16
11	Genoa	14	4	4	6	-8	-4.5	16
12	Roma	13	3	6	4	-5	-1.3	15
13	Empoli	14	3	5	6	-7	-7.8	14
14	Verona	14	4	1	9	-11	-11.2	13
15	Lecce	14	3	2	9	-12	-13.6	11
16	Cagliari	13	2	4	7	-7	-8.6	10
17	Como	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.3	10
18	Parma	13	1	5	7	-11	-12.3	8
19	Monza	13	1	4	8	-15	-10.0	7
20	Venezia	15	0	6	9	-16	-15.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.