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Serie A

Referee: J L Sacchi

Udinese

T S U T S

1–0

Full-time

Roma

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Udinese Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 50%

36%

64%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

50%

23%

Both score Ø 43%

59%

27%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,54 xG 0,74

36% Possession 64%

8 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 17

5 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Udinese 11. · Roma 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	23	18	1	4	+33	+27.5	55
2	Milan	22	13	8	1	+18	+9.9	47
3	Napoli	23	14	4	5	+12	+8.3	46
4	Juventus	23	13	6	4	+21	+23.2	45
5	Roma	22	14	1	7	+14	+6.1	43
6	Como	23	11	8	4	+21	+16.2	41
7	Atalanta	23	9	9	5	+10	+7.7	36
8	Lazio	23	8	8	7	+3	-6.2	32
9	Bologna	22	8	6	8	+5	-0.2	30
10	Sassuolo	23	8	5	10	-2	-8.0	29
11	Udinese	22	8	5	9	-9	-4.8	29
12	Cagliari	23	7	7	9	-3	-11.7	28
13	Torino	23	7	5	11	-18	-7.2	26
14	Genoa	23	5	8	10	-7	-0.3	23
15	Cremonese	23	5	8	10	-11	-13.6	23
16	Parma	23	5	8	10	-15	-14.1	23
17	Lecce	23	4	6	13	-17	-15.8	18
18	Fiorentina	23	3	8	12	-11	+2.4	17
19	Pisa	23	1	11	11	-21	-13.0	14
20	Verona	23	2	8	13	-23	-6.3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	1	2	+23	+18.7	28
2	Napoli	11	8	3	0	+10	+2.4	27
3	Juventus	11	7	4	0	+15	+13.3	25
4	Milan	11	7	3	1	+8	+10.3	24
5	Como	12	6	5	1	+13	+12.3	23
6	Atalanta	12	6	4	2	+9	+12.1	22
7	Roma	11	7	1	3	+8	+6.7	22
8	Lazio	12	5	4	3	+4	+0.2	19
9	Cagliari	11	4	3	4	+2	-4.5	15
10	Bologna	10	4	2	4	+2	+3.6	14
11	Sassuolo	11	4	2	5	-2	-5.3	14
12	Torino	12	4	2	6	-8	-4.6	14
13	Genoa	12	3	4	5	-3	+0.6	13
14	Udinese	11	3	4	4	-5	+0.5	13
15	Cremonese	11	2	5	4	-4	-2.1	11
16	Lecce	12	2	4	6	-8	-2.3	10
17	Parma	12	2	4	6	-9	-9.3	10
18	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-2	+5.3	9
19	Pisa	12	1	4	7	-11	-3.6	7
20	Verona	11	1	3	7	-8	-1.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	11	9	0	2	+10	+8.8	27
2	Milan	11	6	5	0	+10	-0.4	23
3	Roma	11	7	0	4	+6	-0.5	21
4	Juventus	12	6	2	4	+6	+9.9	20
5	Napoli	12	6	1	5	+2	+5.9	19
6	Como	11	5	3	3	+8	+3.9	18
7	Bologna	12	4	4	4	+3	-3.8	16
8	Udinese	11	5	1	5	-4	-5.3	16
9	Sassuolo	12	4	3	5	+0	-2.6	15
10	Atalanta	11	3	5	3	+1	-4.4	14
11	Lazio	11	3	4	4	-1	-6.4	13
12	Cagliari	12	3	4	5	-5	-7.2	13
13	Parma	11	3	4	4	-6	-4.8	13
14	Cremonese	12	3	3	6	-7	-11.5	12
15	Torino	11	3	3	5	-10	-2.6	12
16	Genoa	11	2	4	5	-4	-0.9	10
17	Fiorentina	12	1	5	6	-9	-2.8	8
18	Lecce	11	2	2	7	-9	-13.5	8
19	Verona	12	1	5	6	-15	-5.1	8
20	Pisa	11	0	7	4	-10	-9.3	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.