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Serie A
Referee: M Fabbri
Napoli
S U U T S
2–1
Full-time
Torino
T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Torino
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
1,8
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 45%
59%
30%
Points per game
2,0
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
56%
59%
Both score Ø 47%
52%
41%
Average goals
2,6
2,7
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,04 xG 0,67
64% Possession 36%
14 Shots 7
9 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 7
11 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 11
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Napoli 3. · Torino 14.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Inter 27 22 1 4 +43 +34.4 67
2 Milan 27 16 9 2 +23 +16.8 57
3 Napoli 27 16 5 6 +13 +8.7 53
4 Roma 27 16 3 8 +18 +10.6 51
5 Como 27 13 9 5 +24 +19.7 48
6 Juventus 27 13 8 6 +18 +22.6 47
7 Atalanta 27 12 9 6 +13 +10.9 45
8 Bologna 27 11 6 10 +4 +0.5 39
9 Sassuolo 27 11 5 11 -2 -9.3 38
10 Udinese 27 10 5 12 -8 -6.5 35
11 Lazio 27 8 10 9 -1 -7.9 34
12 Parma 27 8 9 10 -12 -14.6 33
13 Cagliari 27 7 9 11 -7 -13.5 30
14 Torino 27 8 6 13 -20 -10.3 30
15 Genoa 27 6 9 12 -7 -2.1 27
16 Fiorentina 27 5 9 13 -12 +4.4 24
17 Cremonese 27 5 9 13 -17 -18.8 24
18 Lecce 27 6 6 15 -18 -20.4 24
19 Pisa 27 1 12 14 -24 -15.5 15
20 Verona 27 2 9 16 -28 -9.5 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Napoli Torino
1–0 Alisson Santos
L. Spinazzola
7′
Half-time 1–0
F. Anguissa 🔁
↦ A. Vergara
46′
57′
🔁 M. Pedersen
↦ R. Obrador
57′
🔁 C. Adams
↦ D. Zapata
63′
🟨 Gvidas Gineitis
64′
🟨 Ardian Ismajli
67′
🔁 S. Kulenovic
↦ G. Simeone
67′
🔁 C. Casadei
↦ G. Gineitis
2–0 E. Elmas
M. Politano
68′
M. Gutierrez 🔁
↦ L. Spinazzola
69′
73′
🟨 Valentino Lazaro
78′
🔁 F. Anjorin
↦ M. Prati
K. De Bruyne 🔁
↦ Alisson Santos
79′
R. Lukaku 🔁
↦ R. Hojlund
84′
P. Mazzocchi 🔁
↦ M. Politano
84′
87′
C. Casadei 2–1
C. Adams
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Napoli

3-4-2-1
32 V. Milinkovic-Savic G
5 Juan Jesus D
4 A. Buongiorno D
17 M. Olivera D
21 M. Politano M
6 B. Gilmour M
20 E. Elmas M
37 L. Spinazzola M
26 A. Vergara F
27 Alisson Santos F
19 R. Hojlund F
Bench (9)
1 A. Meret
14 N. Contini
3 M. Gutierrez
9 R. Lukaku
11 K. De Bruyne
23 Giovane
30 P. Mazzocchi
31 S. Beukema
99 F. Anguissa

Coach: Antonio Conte

Torino

3-4-1-2
1 A. Paleari G
23 S. Coco D
44 A. Ismajli D
77 E. Ebosse D
20 V. Lazaro M
4 M. Prati M
66 G. Gineitis M
33 R. Obrador M
10 N. Vlasic F
91 D. Zapata F
18 G. Simeone F
Bench (15)
81 F. Israel
99 L. Siviero
6 E. Ilkhan
8 I. Ilic
13 G. Maripan
14 F. Anjorin
16 M. Pedersen
17 S. Kulenovic
19 C. Adams
22 C. Casadei
25 N. Nkounkou
34 C. Biraghi
35 L. Marianucci
61 A. Tameze
92 A. Njie

Coach: Leonardo Colucci

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,56
U
3,75
B
6,32
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,15
U2,5
1,67
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Fabbri · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.