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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Genoa

U S U S T

2–3

Full-time

Napoli

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 42%

22%

61%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

61%

48%

Both score Ø 54%

65%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,36 xG 2,48

40% Possession 60%

12 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Genoa 14. · Napoli 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	23	18	1	4	+33	+27.5	55
2	Milan	23	14	8	1	+21	+12.1	50
3	Napoli	23	14	4	5	+12	+8.3	46
4	Juventus	23	13	6	4	+21	+23.2	45
5	Roma	23	14	1	8	+13	+6.4	43
6	Como	23	11	8	4	+21	+16.2	41
7	Atalanta	23	9	9	5	+10	+7.7	36
8	Lazio	23	8	8	7	+3	-6.2	32
9	Udinese	23	9	5	9	-8	-5.0	32
10	Bologna	23	8	6	9	+2	-2.4	30
11	Sassuolo	23	8	5	10	-2	-8.0	29
12	Cagliari	23	7	7	9	-3	-11.7	28
13	Torino	23	7	5	11	-18	-7.2	26
14	Genoa	23	5	8	10	-7	-0.3	23
15	Cremonese	23	5	8	10	-11	-13.6	23
16	Parma	23	5	8	10	-15	-14.1	23
17	Lecce	23	4	6	13	-17	-15.8	18
18	Fiorentina	23	3	8	12	-11	+2.4	17
19	Pisa	24	1	12	11	-21	-12.2	15
20	Verona	24	2	9	13	-23	-7.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	1	2	+23	+18.7	28
2	Napoli	11	8	3	0	+10	+2.4	27
3	Juventus	11	7	4	0	+15	+13.3	25
4	Milan	11	7	3	1	+8	+10.3	24
5	Como	12	6	5	1	+13	+12.3	23
6	Atalanta	12	6	4	2	+9	+12.1	22
7	Roma	11	7	1	3	+8	+6.7	22
8	Lazio	12	5	4	3	+4	+0.2	19
9	Udinese	12	4	4	4	-4	+0.3	16
10	Cagliari	11	4	3	4	+2	-4.5	15
11	Bologna	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.4	14
12	Sassuolo	11	4	2	5	-2	-5.3	14
13	Torino	12	4	2	6	-8	-4.6	14
14	Genoa	12	3	4	5	-3	+0.6	13
15	Cremonese	11	2	5	4	-4	-2.1	11
16	Lecce	12	2	4	6	-8	-2.3	10
17	Parma	12	2	4	6	-9	-9.3	10
18	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-2	+5.3	9
19	Verona	12	1	4	7	-8	-2.0	7
20	Pisa	12	1	4	7	-11	-3.6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	11	9	0	2	+10	+8.8	27
2	Milan	12	7	5	0	+13	+1.8	26
3	Roma	12	7	0	5	+5	-0.3	21
4	Juventus	12	6	2	4	+6	+9.9	20
5	Napoli	12	6	1	5	+2	+5.9	19
6	Como	11	5	3	3	+8	+3.9	18
7	Bologna	12	4	4	4	+3	-3.8	16
8	Udinese	11	5	1	5	-4	-5.3	16
9	Sassuolo	12	4	3	5	+0	-2.6	15
10	Atalanta	11	3	5	3	+1	-4.4	14
11	Lazio	11	3	4	4	-1	-6.4	13
12	Cagliari	12	3	4	5	-5	-7.2	13
13	Parma	11	3	4	4	-6	-4.8	13
14	Cremonese	12	3	3	6	-7	-11.5	12
15	Torino	11	3	3	5	-10	-2.6	12
16	Genoa	11	2	4	5	-4	-0.9	10
17	Fiorentina	12	1	5	6	-9	-2.8	8
18	Lecce	11	2	2	7	-9	-13.5	8
19	Pisa	12	0	8	4	-10	-8.6	8
20	Verona	12	1	5	6	-15	-5.1	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.