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Serie A

Referee: A Colombo

Napoli

T T S S U

2–2

Full-time

Roma

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 63%

63%

Points per game

2,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

50%

21%

Both score Ø 36%

46%

25%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,56 xG 1,79

61% Possession 39%

11 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 3. · Roma 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	25	20	1	4	+39	+30.6	61
2	Milan	24	15	8	1	+22	+13.6	53
3	Napoli	24	15	4	5	+13	+9.4	49
4	Juventus	25	13	7	5	+20	+23.5	46
5	Roma	24	15	1	8	+15	+7.1	46
6	Atalanta	25	11	9	5	+13	+9.4	42
7	Como	24	11	8	5	+20	+15.5	41
8	Bologna	25	9	6	10	+2	-0.6	33
9	Lazio	25	8	9	8	+1	-8.3	33
10	Sassuolo	25	9	5	11	-6	-8.9	32
11	Udinese	25	9	5	11	-10	-6.4	32
12	Parma	25	7	8	10	-13	-14.3	29
13	Cagliari	24	7	7	10	-5	-12.5	28
14	Torino	25	7	6	12	-19	-8.7	27
15	Genoa	25	5	9	11	-8	-2.0	24
16	Cremonese	25	5	9	11	-12	-14.2	24
17	Fiorentina	25	4	9	12	-10	+3.7	21
18	Lecce	24	5	6	13	-16	-15.2	21
19	Pisa	25	1	12	12	-22	-13.8	15
20	Verona	25	2	9	14	-24	-7.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	10	1	2	+24	+20.1	31
2	Napoli	11	8	3	0	+10	+2.4	27
3	Juventus	12	7	5	0	+15	+14.9	26
4	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+10	+13.3	25
5	Roma	12	8	1	3	+10	+7.4	25
6	Milan	11	7	3	1	+8	+10.3	24
7	Como	13	6	5	2	+12	+11.6	23
8	Lazio	13	5	4	4	+2	-0.3	19
9	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-5	-0.5	16
10	Cagliari	11	4	3	4	+2	-4.5	15
11	Bologna	12	4	2	6	-2	+2.3	14
12	Sassuolo	12	4	2	6	-7	-7.1	14
13	Torino	13	4	2	7	-9	-5.5	14
14	Genoa	13	3	4	6	-4	-0.5	13
15	Lecce	13	3	4	6	-7	-1.7	13
16	Parma	13	3	4	6	-8	-8.5	13
17	Cremonese	12	2	6	4	-4	-1.6	12
18	Fiorentina	12	2	4	6	-2	+5.9	10
19	Verona	12	1	4	7	-8	-2.0	7
20	Pisa	13	1	4	8	-12	-5.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	0	2	+15	+10.6	30
2	Milan	13	8	5	0	+14	+3.3	29
3	Napoli	13	7	1	5	+3	+7.0	22
4	Roma	12	7	0	5	+5	-0.3	21
5	Juventus	13	6	2	5	+5	+8.6	20
6	Bologna	13	5	4	4	+4	-2.9	19
7	Como	11	5	3	3	+8	+3.9	18
8	Sassuolo	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.8	18
9	Atalanta	12	4	5	3	+3	-3.9	17
10	Udinese	12	5	1	6	-5	-5.9	16
11	Parma	12	4	4	4	-5	-5.8	16
12	Lazio	12	3	5	4	-1	-8.0	14
13	Cagliari	13	3	4	6	-7	-7.9	13
14	Torino	12	3	4	5	-10	-3.2	13
15	Cremonese	13	3	3	7	-8	-12.6	12
16	Genoa	12	2	5	5	-4	-1.4	11
17	Fiorentina	13	2	5	6	-8	-2.2	11
18	Lecce	11	2	2	7	-9	-13.5	8
19	Pisa	12	0	8	4	-10	-8.6	8
20	Verona	13	1	5	7	-16	-5.8	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.