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Serie A

Referee: Matteo Marcenaro

Torino

S T S T U

1–0

Full-time

Napoli

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Torino Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,00 xG 2,06

31% Possession 69%

12 Shots 22

2 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 11

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Torino 16. · Napoli 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	0	1	+6	+5.0	15
2	Roma	6	5	0	1	+5	+1.6	15
3	Milan	6	4	1	1	+6	+3.6	13
4	Inter	6	4	0	2	+9	+8.3	12
5	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+4	+1.1	12
6	Atalanta	6	2	4	0	+6	+2.7	10
7	Bologna	6	3	1	2	+4	+2.8	10
8	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+0	-2.9	10
9	Como	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.7	9
10	Cremonese	6	2	3	1	-1	-5.4	9
11	Cagliari	6	2	2	2	+0	-4.8	8
12	Udinese	6	2	2	2	-3	+0.6	8
13	Lazio	6	2	1	3	+3	+0.6	7
14	Lecce	7	1	3	3	-5	-3.9	6
15	Parma	6	1	2	3	-4	+0.4	5
16	Torino	6	1	2	3	-8	-2.5	5
17	Verona	7	0	4	3	-7	-0.7	4
18	Fiorentina	6	0	3	3	-4	-2.0	3
19	Pisa	7	0	3	4	-7	-5.0	3
20	Genoa	6	0	2	4	-6	-1.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
2	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.1	9
3	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.4	9
4	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.7	8
5	Roma	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
6	Milan	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
7	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.5	6
8	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	+3.0	5
9	Como	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.4	5
10	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+3	+2.7	4
11	Cremonese	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
12	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
13	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.3	4
14	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.4	2
15	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.7	2
16	Lecce	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.1	2
17	Udinese	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.8	2
18	Torino	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.2	1
19	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.2	1
20	Fiorentina	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.6	9
2	Milan	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.3	7
3	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.7	6
4	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.2	6
5	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.3	5
6	Cremonese	4	1	2	1	-2	-6.7	5
7	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
8	Como	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.3	4
9	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.5	4
10	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.4	4
11	Lecce	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.9	4
12	Torino	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.3	4
13	Inter	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
14	Lazio	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.0	3
15	Fiorentina	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
16	Verona	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.1	2
17	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.4	1
18	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
19	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.2	1
20	Pisa	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.