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Serie A

Referee: M Perri

Fiorentina

U U T U S

1–1

Full-time

Atalanta

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 33%

24%

41%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

51%

38%

Both score Ø 54%

57%

51%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,85 xG 1,38

40% Possession 60%

11 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 15. · Atalanta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	37	27	5	5	+54	+37.0	86
2	Napoli	37	22	7	8	+21	+11.5	73
3	Roma	37	22	4	11	+26	+13.2	70
4	Milan	37	20	10	7	+19	+17.4	70
5	Como	37	19	11	7	+33	+26.6	68
6	Juventus	37	19	11	7	+27	+34.8	68
7	Atalanta	37	15	13	9	+15	+14.7	58
8	Bologna	37	16	7	14	+3	-0.9	55
9	Lazio	37	13	12	12	+0	-4.6	51
10	Udinese	37	14	8	15	-2	-9.2	50
11	Sassuolo	37	14	7	16	-3	-13.1	49
12	Torino	37	12	8	17	-19	-7.1	44
13	Parma	37	10	12	15	-19	-25.0	42
14	Genoa	37	10	11	16	-9	-2.5	41
15	Fiorentina	37	9	14	14	-9	+3.3	41
16	Cagliari	37	10	10	17	-14	-15.9	40
17	Lecce	37	9	8	20	-23	-27.3	35
18	Cremonese	37	8	10	19	-22	-21.0	34
19	Verona	37	3	12	22	-34	-12.2	21
20	Pisa	37	2	12	23	-44	-20.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	19	14	3	2	+34	+27.5	45
2	Roma	19	13	3	3	+23	+12.7	42
3	Napoli	18	12	4	2	+14	+2.4	40
4	Juventus	19	10	7	2	+19	+23.7	37
5	Como	19	10	6	3	+20	+22.3	36
6	Atalanta	19	9	6	4	+10	+16.6	33
7	Milan	18	9	5	4	+5	+11.4	32
8	Sassuolo	19	9	2	8	-1	-5.8	29
9	Lazio	18	7	6	5	+1	+0.5	27
10	Torino	18	8	3	7	-2	-2.5	27
11	Cagliari	19	7	4	8	-1	-5.7	25
12	Udinese	19	6	5	8	-3	-1.1	23
13	Genoa	19	6	4	9	-4	+2.3	22
14	Bologna	18	6	3	9	-4	+2.0	21
15	Fiorentina	18	4	8	6	+0	+10.4	20
16	Parma	18	4	6	8	-10	-11.2	18
17	Lecce	18	4	5	9	-12	-7.1	17
18	Cremonese	18	3	7	8	-8	-2.6	16
19	Pisa	19	2	4	13	-17	-5.0	10
20	Verona	18	1	5	12	-14	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	13	2	3	+20	+9.6	41
2	Milan	19	11	5	3	+14	+6.0	38
3	Bologna	19	10	4	5	+7	-2.9	34
4	Napoli	19	10	3	6	+7	+9.1	33
5	Como	18	9	5	4	+13	+4.3	32
6	Juventus	18	9	4	5	+8	+11.1	31
7	Roma	18	9	1	8	+3	+0.5	28
8	Udinese	18	8	3	7	+1	-8.1	27
9	Atalanta	18	6	7	5	+5	-1.9	25
10	Lazio	19	6	6	7	-1	-5.1	24
11	Parma	19	6	6	7	-9	-13.8	24
12	Fiorentina	19	5	6	8	-9	-7.1	21
13	Sassuolo	18	5	5	8	-2	-7.2	20
14	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-5	-4.8	19
15	Lecce	19	5	3	11	-11	-20.2	18
16	Cremonese	19	5	3	11	-14	-18.4	18
17	Torino	19	4	5	10	-17	-4.6	17
18	Cagliari	18	3	6	9	-13	-10.2	15
19	Verona	19	2	7	10	-20	-9.9	13
20	Pisa	18	0	8	10	-27	-15.0	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.