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Ligue 1

Referee: J Miguelgorry

Marseille

U U S S S

1–3

Full-time

Nantes

T T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,2

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

0,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 50%

60%

40%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

40%

36%

Both score Ø 44%

48%

40%

Average goals

2,3

2,1

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

63% Possession 37%

16 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 2. · Nantes 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	20	2	3	+46	62
2	Marseille	25	15	7	3	+13	52
3	Rennes	25	12	5	8	+6	41
4	Lille	25	12	4	9	+3	40
5	Monaco	25	11	5	9	+1	38
6	Lyon	26	10	7	9	+14	37
7	Montpellier	25	10	7	8	+4	37
8	Strasbourg	25	11	4	10	+3	37
9	Nice	26	10	7	9	+2	37
10	Reims	25	9	9	7	+4	36
11	Bordeaux	25	9	8	8	+7	35
12	Brest	26	8	10	8	-1	34
13	Nantes	25	10	4	11	-2	34
14	Angers	25	8	6	11	-9	30
15	Metz	26	6	10	10	-10	28
16	St Etienne	25	8	4	13	-14	28
17	Nimes	25	7	6	12	-12	27
18	Dijon	25	6	8	11	-7	26
19	Amiens	25	4	9	12	-18	21
20	Toulouse	25	3	4	18	-30	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	1	1	+28	31
2	Montpellier	13	9	2	2	+13	29
3	Lille	13	9	2	2	+11	29
4	Marseille	12	8	3	1	+9	27
5	Monaco	13	8	1	4	+7	25
6	Nice	14	7	4	3	+7	25
7	Brest	13	6	6	1	+11	24
8	Strasbourg	12	7	2	3	+8	23
9	Rennes	12	7	2	3	+5	23
10	Angers	13	6	3	4	+4	21
11	Dijon	12	5	5	2	+4	20
12	Nimes	13	6	2	5	+3	20
13	Nantes	13	6	2	5	+1	20
14	Reims	13	4	7	2	+4	19
15	Lyon	12	4	4	4	+8	16
16	Bordeaux	12	4	4	4	+7	16
17	Metz	13	4	4	5	+0	16
18	St Etienne	12	4	4	4	-3	16
19	Amiens	13	3	5	5	-5	14
20	Toulouse	12	3	0	9	-11	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	10	1	2	+18	31
2	Marseille	13	7	4	2	+4	25
3	Lyon	14	6	3	5	+6	21
4	Bordeaux	13	5	4	4	+0	19
5	Rennes	13	5	3	5	+1	18
6	Reims	12	5	2	5	+0	17
7	Nantes	12	4	2	6	-3	14
8	Strasbourg	13	4	2	7	-5	14
9	Monaco	12	3	4	5	-6	13
10	Nice	12	3	3	6	-5	12
11	Metz	13	2	6	5	-10	12
12	St Etienne	13	4	0	9	-11	12
13	Lille	12	3	2	7	-8	11
14	Brest	13	2	4	7	-12	10
15	Angers	12	2	3	7	-13	9
16	Montpellier	12	1	5	6	-9	8
17	Amiens	12	1	4	7	-13	7
18	Nimes	12	1	4	7	-15	7
19	Dijon	13	1	3	9	-11	6
20	Toulouse	13	0	4	9	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.