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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Marseille

S S U U S

1–0

Full-time

Toulouse

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,3

Conceded

0,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 35%

57%

13%

Points per game

2,0

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

39%

61%

Both score Ø 48%

48%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

0,9

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%

12 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 2. · Toulouse 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	23	19	1	3	+44	58
2	Marseille	23	13	7	3	+11	46
3	Rennes	23	12	4	7	+7	40
4	Lille	24	12	4	8	+4	40
5	Montpellier	23	9	7	7	+4	34
6	Lyon	23	9	6	8	+14	33
7	Reims	23	8	9	6	+6	33
8	Nice	23	9	6	8	+2	33
9	Strasbourg	23	10	3	10	+0	33
10	Monaco	23	9	5	9	-1	32
11	Nantes	23	10	2	11	-2	32
12	Bordeaux	23	8	7	8	+6	31
13	Angers	24	8	6	10	-8	30
14	Brest	23	7	8	8	-2	29
15	St Etienne	23	8	4	11	-12	28
16	Metz	23	6	9	8	-7	27
17	Dijon	23	6	6	11	-7	24
18	Nimes	23	5	6	12	-15	21
19	Amiens	23	4	8	11	-17	20
20	Toulouse	23	3	4	16	-27	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	12	9	2	1	+12	29
2	Paris SG	11	9	1	1	+26	28
3	Montpellier	12	8	2	2	+12	26
4	Nice	12	7	3	2	+9	24
5	Marseille	11	7	3	1	+8	24
6	Monaco	12	7	1	4	+6	22
7	Rennes	11	7	1	3	+5	22
8	Brest	12	5	6	1	+10	21
9	Angers	13	6	3	4	+4	21
10	Strasbourg	11	6	2	3	+5	20
11	Dijon	11	5	4	2	+4	19
12	Nantes	12	6	1	5	+1	19
13	Nimes	12	5	2	5	+2	17
14	Metz	11	4	4	3	+3	16
15	Reims	12	3	7	2	+3	16
16	St Etienne	12	4	4	4	-3	16
17	Lyon	11	4	3	4	+8	15
18	Bordeaux	11	4	3	4	+7	15
19	Amiens	11	3	4	4	-4	13
20	Toulouse	11	3	0	8	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	0	2	+18	30
2	Marseille	12	6	4	2	+3	22
3	Lyon	12	5	3	4	+6	18
4	Rennes	12	5	3	4	+2	18
5	Reims	11	5	2	4	+3	17
6	Bordeaux	12	4	4	4	-1	16
7	Nantes	11	4	1	6	-3	13
8	Strasbourg	12	4	1	7	-5	13
9	St Etienne	11	4	0	7	-9	12
10	Lille	12	3	2	7	-8	11
11	Metz	12	2	5	5	-10	11
12	Monaco	11	2	4	5	-7	10
13	Nice	11	2	3	6	-7	9
14	Angers	11	2	3	6	-12	9
15	Montpellier	11	1	5	5	-8	8
16	Brest	11	2	2	7	-12	8
17	Amiens	12	1	4	7	-13	7
18	Dijon	12	1	2	9	-11	5
19	Nimes	11	0	4	7	-17	4
20	Toulouse	12	0	4	8	-18	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.