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Ligue 1

Referee: W Delajod

Strasbourg

T T U U S

1–2

Full-time

Toulouse

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Strasbourg Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

4,3

Scored

1,3

3,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 22%

11%

32%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

63%

Both score Ø 71%

84%

58%

Average goals

3,1

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,01 xG 1,22

54% Possession 46%

11 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Strasbourg 16. · Toulouse 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	19	15	2	2	+34	–	47
2	Lens	20	13	6	1	+19	+1.7	45
3	Marseille	20	13	4	3	+23	-0.1	43
4	Monaco	20	11	5	4	+16	+0.1	38
5	Rennes	20	11	4	5	+15	+0.6	37
6	Lorient	20	10	5	5	+3	-0.6	35
7	Lille	20	10	4	6	+9	+0.3	34
8	Nice	20	7	7	6	+3	-0.3	28
9	Clermont	19	8	4	7	-3	–	28
10	Lyon	19	7	4	8	+5	–	25
11	Reims	19	5	10	4	-2	–	25
12	Toulouse	19	6	5	8	-5	–	23
13	Nantes	19	4	9	6	-3	–	21
14	Troyes	20	4	7	9	-10	-1.7	19
15	Montpellier	19	5	2	12	-12	–	17
16	Strasbourg	19	2	9	8	-10	–	15
17	Brest	19	3	6	10	-15	–	15
18	Ajaccio	19	4	3	12	-18	–	15
19	Auxerre	19	3	4	12	-25	–	13
20	Angers	19	2	2	15	-24	–	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	10	10	0	0	+15	–	30
2	Rennes	10	9	0	1	+17	–	27
3	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+15	–	25
4	Marseille	11	7	2	2	+12	-0.1	23
5	Lille	10	6	2	2	+4	–	20
6	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+8	–	17
7	Monaco	10	5	2	3	+7	–	17
8	Lorient	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.6	17
9	Toulouse	10	4	4	2	+1	–	16
10	Nice	10	4	3	3	+3	-0.3	15
11	Nantes	9	3	5	1	+3	–	14
12	Reims	9	3	4	2	-1	–	13
13	Clermont	9	4	1	4	-6	–	13
14	Troyes	10	1	7	2	-3	-1.7	10
15	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-6	–	10
16	Auxerre	9	2	3	4	-8	–	9
17	Ajaccio	9	2	1	6	-7	–	7
18	Brest	9	1	4	4	-10	–	7
19	Strasbourg	10	0	6	4	-7	–	6
20	Angers	10	1	1	8	-11	–	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	7	1	2	+19	–	22
2	Monaco	10	6	3	1	+9	+0.1	21
3	Marseille	9	6	2	1	+11	–	20
4	Lorient	10	5	3	2	+1	–	18
5	Lens	10	3	6	1	+4	+1.7	15
6	Clermont	10	4	3	3	+3	–	15
7	Lille	10	4	2	4	+5	+0.3	14
8	Nice	10	3	4	3	+0	–	13
9	Reims	10	2	6	2	-1	–	12
10	Rennes	10	2	4	4	-2	+0.6	10
11	Strasbourg	9	2	3	4	-3	–	9
12	Troyes	10	3	0	7	-7	–	9
13	Lyon	9	2	2	5	-3	–	8
14	Brest	10	2	2	6	-5	–	8
15	Ajaccio	10	2	2	6	-11	–	8
16	Montpellier	9	2	1	6	-6	–	7
17	Toulouse	9	2	1	6	-6	–	7
18	Nantes	10	1	4	5	-6	–	7
19	Angers	9	1	1	7	-13	–	4
20	Auxerre	10	1	1	8	-17	–	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.