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Ligue 1

Referee: J Hamel

Strasbourg

T S S T T

4–2

Full-time

Toulouse

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Strasbourg Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 25%

31%

19%

Points per game

1,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

38%

63%

Both score Ø 44%

31%

56%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

54% Possession 46%

18 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 0

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Strasbourg 15. · Toulouse 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	0	3	+26	39
2	Marseille	16	9	4	3	+4	31
3	Lille	17	8	4	5	+6	28
4	Bordeaux	16	7	5	4	+10	26
5	Lyon	17	7	4	6	+12	25
6	St Etienne	16	7	4	5	+0	25
7	Montpellier	17	6	6	5	+4	24
8	Rennes	15	7	3	5	+4	24
9	Angers	16	7	3	6	-2	24
10	Nantes	16	7	2	7	-2	23
11	Reims	15	5	6	4	+3	21
12	Brest	17	5	6	6	+1	21
13	Monaco	15	6	3	6	-2	21
14	Nice	16	6	2	8	-5	20
15	Strasbourg	16	5	3	8	-5	18
16	Dijon	16	4	4	8	-7	16
17	Amiens	15	4	4	7	-9	16
18	Metz	16	3	6	7	-8	15
19	Toulouse	16	3	3	10	-14	12
20	Nimes	16	2	6	8	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	9	7	2	0	+12	23
2	Paris SG	8	7	0	1	+18	21
3	Angers	9	6	1	2	+9	19
4	Montpellier	9	6	1	2	+7	19
5	Marseille	8	5	2	1	+4	17
6	Brest	9	4	4	1	+9	16
7	Nantes	8	5	1	2	+3	16
8	Bordeaux	8	4	2	2	+9	14
9	Strasbourg	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Nice	8	4	2	2	+2	14
11	St Etienne	8	3	4	1	+4	13
12	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+3	13
13	Rennes	7	4	1	2	+3	13
14	Dijon	8	3	3	2	+0	12
15	Lyon	8	3	2	3	+6	11
16	Reims	8	2	5	1	+2	11
17	Amiens	7	3	1	3	-3	10
18	Metz	8	2	3	3	+0	9
19	Toulouse	8	3	0	5	-4	9
20	Nimes	7	2	2	3	-2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	0	2	+8	18
2	Lyon	9	4	2	3	+6	14
3	Marseille	8	4	2	2	+0	14
4	Bordeaux	8	3	3	2	+1	12
5	St Etienne	8	4	0	4	-4	12
6	Rennes	8	3	2	3	+1	11
7	Reims	7	3	1	3	+1	10
8	Monaco	8	2	2	4	-5	8
9	Nantes	8	2	1	5	-5	7
10	Amiens	8	1	3	4	-6	6
11	Nice	8	2	0	6	-7	6
12	Metz	8	1	3	4	-8	6
13	Montpellier	8	0	5	3	-3	5
14	Lille	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Brest	8	1	2	5	-8	5
16	Angers	7	1	2	4	-11	5
17	Dijon	8	1	1	6	-7	4
18	Strasbourg	8	1	1	6	-8	4
19	Nimes	9	0	4	5	-14	4
20	Toulouse	8	0	3	5	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.