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Ligue 1

Referee: M Bollengier

Metz

T T T U T

1–2

Full-time

Lyon

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 25%

18%

32%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

45%

50%

Both score Ø 45%

45%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,65 xG 1,63

38% Possession 62%

15 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 17. · Lyon 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	22	16	5	1	+35	+20.5	53
2	Brest	22	11	7	4	+13	+7.2	40
3	Nice	22	11	6	5	+7	+9.8	39
4	Lille	22	10	8	4	+15	+12.6	38
5	Monaco	22	11	5	6	+9	+4.8	38
6	Lens	22	10	6	6	+7	+1.5	36
7	Rennes	22	9	7	6	+8	+10.7	34
8	Reims	22	9	4	9	-2	+3.6	31
9	Marseille	22	7	9	6	+5	+14.2	30
10	Strasbourg	22	6	7	9	-9	-2.7	25
11	Lyon	22	7	4	11	-11	-5.5	25
12	Le Havre	22	5	9	8	-5	-10.5	24
13	Montpellier	22	5	8	9	-3	+1.7	23
14	Toulouse	22	5	8	9	-8	-10.2	23
15	Lorient	22	5	7	10	-12	-11.9	22
16	Nantes	22	6	4	12	-12	-9.4	22
17	Metz	22	4	5	13	-17	-17.7	17
18	Clermont	22	3	7	12	-20	-18.8	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	2	1	+19	+13.2	26
2	Lille	11	8	2	1	+17	+15.2	26
3	Nice	11	7	3	1	+9	+8.7	24
4	Marseille	11	6	5	0	+12	+13.3	23
5	Brest	11	6	4	1	+11	+11.2	22
6	Rennes	12	6	3	3	+9	+11.3	21
7	Lens	10	6	2	2	+8	+6.0	20
8	Monaco	11	6	1	4	+7	+5.8	19
9	Reims	11	5	2	4	+0	+5.3	17
10	Strasbourg	11	4	3	4	+0	+2.3	15
11	Lyon	12	4	3	5	-4	+1.4	15
12	Le Havre	10	4	2	4	+2	+3.8	14
13	Montpellier	12	2	7	3	+1	+6.6	13
14	Lorient	11	3	4	4	-1	-4.4	13
15	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-3	-2.0	12
16	Toulouse	10	1	5	4	-2	+1.1	8
17	Clermont	11	1	4	6	-9	-5.4	7
18	Metz	10	1	3	6	-4	-2.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	3	0	+16	+7.3	27
2	Monaco	11	5	4	2	+2	-1.0	19
3	Brest	11	5	3	3	+2	-4.0	18
4	Lens	12	4	4	4	-1	-4.5	16
5	Nice	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.1	15
6	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	-6	-11.3	15
7	Reims	11	4	2	5	-2	-1.7	14
8	Rennes	10	3	4	3	-1	-0.6	13
9	Lille	11	2	6	3	-2	-2.7	12
10	Metz	12	3	2	7	-13	-15.6	11
11	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-4	-4.9	10
12	Le Havre	12	1	7	4	-7	-14.3	10
13	Lyon	10	3	1	6	-7	-6.8	10
14	Strasbourg	11	2	4	5	-9	-5.1	10
15	Nantes	10	3	1	6	-9	-7.4	10
16	Lorient	11	2	3	6	-11	-7.5	9
17	Clermont	11	2	3	6	-11	-13.3	9
18	Marseille	11	1	4	6	-7	+0.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.