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Bundesliga

Referee: T Gerach

Leverkusen

U S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 46%

82%

Points per game

2,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

77%

41%

Both score Ø 53%

50%

55%

Average goals

3,3

2,4

Scored

2,6

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,16 xG 1,11

67% Possession 33%

18 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Leverkusen 1. · Mainz 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	22	18	4	0	+42	+26.0	58
2	Bayern Munich	22	16	2	4	+36	+40.4	50
3	Stuttgart	22	15	1	6	+23	+24.4	46
4	Dortmund	22	11	8	3	+17	+8.7	41
5	RB Leipzig	22	12	4	6	+20	+16.4	40
6	Ein Frankfurt	22	8	9	5	+6	-4.6	33
7	Werder Bremen	22	8	5	9	-3	-6.8	29
8	Freiburg	22	8	5	9	-11	-0.0	29
9	Hoffenheim	22	7	6	9	-3	-1.3	27
10	Heidenheim	22	7	6	9	-7	-19.0	27
11	Bochum	22	5	10	7	-15	-14.1	25
12	Wolfsburg	22	6	6	10	-8	-2.8	24
13	Union Berlin	22	7	3	12	-14	-7.6	24
14	Augsburg	22	5	8	9	-9	-6.4	23
15	M'gladbach	22	5	7	10	-7	-7.0	22
16	FC Koln	22	3	7	12	-21	-22.4	16
17	Mainz	22	2	9	11	-18	-0.8	15
18	Darmstadt	22	2	6	14	-28	-23.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	11	9	2	0	+26	+20.1	29
2	Bayern Munich	11	9	1	1	+30	+24.5	28
3	Stuttgart	11	9	1	1	+24	+20.7	28
4	RB Leipzig	12	8	2	2	+20	+14.2	26
5	Dortmund	11	7	2	2	+7	+8.5	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	4	1	+8	+3.4	19
7	Freiburg	11	5	4	2	+3	+8.5	19
8	Bochum	11	4	6	1	+5	+2.7	18
9	Heidenheim	11	5	3	3	+2	-5.4	18
10	Werder Bremen	11	5	2	4	+2	+0.5	17
11	Wolfsburg	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.9	16
12	Union Berlin	10	5	1	4	-2	-0.7	16
13	M'gladbach	11	4	3	4	+2	+2.6	15
14	Augsburg	11	3	5	3	+0	-1.3	14
15	Hoffenheim	11	2	4	5	-3	+4.0	10
16	FC Koln	11	2	3	6	-7	-8.6	9
17	Mainz	11	2	3	6	-7	+3.6	9
18	Darmstadt	12	1	3	8	-12	-6.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	11	9	2	0	+16	+5.9	29
2	Bayern Munich	11	7	1	3	+6	+15.9	22
3	Dortmund	11	4	6	1	+10	+0.2	18
4	Stuttgart	11	6	0	5	-1	+3.7	18
5	Hoffenheim	11	5	2	4	+0	-5.4	17
6	RB Leipzig	10	4	2	4	+0	+2.2	14
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	3	5	4	-2	-8.0	14
8	Werder Bremen	11	3	3	5	-5	-7.4	12
9	Freiburg	11	3	1	7	-14	-8.5	10
10	Heidenheim	11	2	3	6	-9	-13.7	9
11	Augsburg	11	2	3	6	-9	-5.1	9
12	Wolfsburg	11	2	2	7	-11	-1.8	8
13	Union Berlin	12	2	2	8	-12	-6.9	8
14	M'gladbach	11	1	4	6	-9	-9.5	7
15	FC Koln	11	1	4	6	-14	-13.8	7
16	Bochum	11	1	4	6	-20	-16.8	7
17	Mainz	11	0	6	5	-11	-4.4	6
18	Darmstadt	10	1	3	6	-16	-16.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.