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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luís Godinho

Arouca

S S S S T

3–2

Full-time

Famalicao

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/21 matches

Win Ø 33%

36%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

59%

43%

Both score Ø 51%

50%

52%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,80 xG 1,23

53% Possession 47%

14 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

20 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 7. · Famalicao 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	21	18	1	2	+41	+29.4	55
2	Benfica	22	17	4	1	+37	+27.1	55
3	Porto	22	15	3	4	+21	+14.8	48
4	Sp Braga	22	13	4	5	+13	+14.3	43
5	Guimaraes	22	12	5	5	+12	+7.2	41
6	Moreirense	22	10	5	7	+0	-1.7	35
7	Arouca	22	8	4	10	+5	-0.6	28
8	Farense	22	7	5	10	-1	-7.3	26
9	Famalicao	21	6	8	7	-4	-6.2	26
10	Gil Vicente	22	7	4	11	-3	-5.5	25
11	Boavista	22	6	6	10	-10	-9.6	24
12	Casa Pia	22	6	5	11	-15	-8.3	23
13	Portimonense	22	6	4	12	-21	-13.5	22
14	Estoril	22	6	3	13	-4	-10.0	21
15	Rio Ave	22	4	9	9	-9	+1.6	21
16	Estrela	22	5	6	11	-12	-8.1	21
17	Chaves	22	4	5	13	-26	-14.0	17
18	Vizela	22	3	7	12	-24	-9.6	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	11	0	0	+30	+18.7	33
2	Benfica	11	9	2	0	+24	+17.7	29
3	Porto	11	8	2	1	+14	+15.0	26
4	Guimaraes	11	8	1	2	+13	+9.2	25
5	Sp Braga	11	6	3	2	+11	+17.1	21
6	Gil Vicente	11	5	4	2	+9	-2.2	19
7	Moreirense	11	5	2	4	+0	-0.6	17
8	Estoril	11	5	1	5	+8	-0.6	16
9	Rio Ave	11	4	4	3	+1	+4.3	16
10	Farense	11	4	3	4	+3	+1.0	15
11	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	-1	-1.7	15
12	Arouca	11	4	2	5	+2	-0.4	14
13	Estrela	11	4	1	6	-4	-3.9	13
14	Boavista	11	3	4	4	-6	-3.1	13
15	Chaves	11	3	3	5	-6	-2.8	12
16	Portimonense	11	3	3	5	-6	-4.9	12
17	Casa Pia	11	2	3	6	-7	-2.4	9
18	Vizela	11	1	3	7	-12	-2.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	2	1	+13	+9.5	26
2	Sp Lisbon	10	7	1	2	+11	+10.7	22
3	Porto	11	7	1	3	+7	-0.2	22
4	Sp Braga	11	7	1	3	+2	-2.8	22
5	Moreirense	11	5	3	3	+0	-1.1	18
6	Guimaraes	11	4	4	3	-1	-2.0	16
7	Arouca	11	4	2	5	+3	-0.2	14
8	Casa Pia	11	4	2	5	-8	-5.9	14
9	Famalicao	11	2	5	4	-3	-4.5	11
10	Boavista	11	3	2	6	-4	-6.5	11
11	Farense	11	3	2	6	-4	-8.4	11
12	Vizela	11	2	4	5	-12	-7.4	10
13	Portimonense	11	3	1	7	-15	-8.5	10
14	Estrela	11	1	5	5	-8	-4.2	8
15	Gil Vicente	11	2	0	9	-12	-3.2	6
16	Rio Ave	11	0	5	6	-10	-2.7	5
17	Estoril	11	1	2	8	-12	-9.5	5
18	Chaves	11	1	2	8	-20	-11.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.