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Ekstraklasa
Referee: T Musial
4–2
Full-time
LKS Lodz
T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pogon Szczecin LKS Lodz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,2
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 21/20 matches
Win Ø 31%
52%
10%
Points per game
1,7
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 51%
52%
50%
Both score Ø 44%
43%
45%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
1,9
0,7
Conceded
1,1
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,12 xG 1,15
53% Possession 47%
17 Shots 13
6 Shots on target 3
7 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 1
2 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Pogon Szczecin 4. · LKS Lodz 18.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Jagiellonia 21 12 5 4 +19 +8.8 41
2 Slask Wroclaw 21 12 5 4 +14 +3.8 41
3 Lech Poznan 21 11 6 4 +10 -3.1 39
4 Pogon Szczecin 21 11 3 7 +16 +11.8 36
5 Legia 21 10 6 5 +7 +9.4 36
6 Rakow 20 10 5 5 +14 +13.8 35
7 Gornik Zabrze 21 9 5 7 +5 -2.1 32
8 Stal Mielec 20 8 4 8 -2 -7.2 28
9 Cracovia 22 5 11 6 +0 -0.5 26
10 Zaglebie 21 7 5 9 -11 +0.6 26
11 Piast Gliwice 21 4 13 4 +0 +10.5 25
12 Widzew Lodz 21 7 4 10 -5 -2.4 25
13 Radomiak Radom 21 6 6 9 -9 -1.5 24
14 Warta Poznan 21 5 8 8 -5 -7.3 23
15 Korona Kielce 20 4 9 7 -3 -3.5 21
16 Puszcza 20 5 6 9 -11 -13.6 21
17 Ruch Chorzow 21 1 11 9 -13 -7.1 14
18 LKS Lodz 20 2 4 14 -26 -10.4 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Pogon Szczecin LKS Lodz
1–0 R. Kurzawa
A. Przyborek
13′
Half-time 1–1
47′
Dani Ramírez 1–1
Léo Borges 🔁
↦ D. Lončar
55′
A. Gorgon 🔁
↦ A. Przyborek
55′
Leonardo Koutris 🟨
59′
2–1 A. Gorgon
João Gamboa
63′
69′
🔁 P. Janczukowicz
↦ Pirulo
69′
🔁 E. Hoti
↦ T. Ceijas
3–1 A. Gorgon
70′
73′
🟨 Kay Tejan
M. Wędrychowski 🔁
↦ V. Bichakhchyan
77′
4–1 K. Grosicki
82′
83′
🔁 A. Młynarczyk
↦ K. Tejan
83′
🔁 K. Dankowski
↦ H. Balić
85′
A. Młynarczyk 4–2
M. Mokrzycki
86′
🟨 Engjell Hoti
P. Paryzek 🔁
↦ E. Koulouris
86′
O. Korczakowski 🔁
↦ K. Grosicki
86′
Patryk Paryzek 🟨
90′
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin

4-1-4-1
81 B. Klebaniuk G
28 L. Wahlqvist D
68 D. Lončar D
33 M. Malec D
32 L. Koútris D
7 R. Kurzawa M
22 V. Bichakhchyan M
73 A. Przyborek M
21 João Gamboa M
11 K. Grosicki M
9 E. Koulouris F
Bench (9)
4 Léo Borges
20 A. Gorgon
15 M. Wędrychowski
51 P. Paryzek
71 O. Korczakowski
83 A. Holewiński
25 W. Lisowski
61 K. Smoliński
10 L. Zahović

Coach: J. Gustafsson

LKS Lodz

4-3-3
1 A. Bobek G
26 B. Szeliga D
4 R. Məmmədov D
5 M. Flis D
18 R. Durmisi D
6 T. Ceijas M
16 Dani Ramírez M
14 M. Mokrzycki M
10 Pirulo F
9 K. Tejan F
70 H. Balić F
Bench (9)
20 P. Janczukowicz
11 E. Hoti
15 A. Młynarczyk
8 K. Dankowski
27 J. Letniowski
21 S. Jurić
99 D. Arndt
2 L. Gülen
37 P. Głowacki

Coach: M. Matysiak

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

T Musial · 46 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
26,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.