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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

Lille

U S U U U

2–1

Full-time

Nice

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 44%

41%

47%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

41%

65%

Both score Ø 65%

53%

76%

Average goals

2,5

3,4

Scored

1,5

2,1

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,12 xG 2,93

55% Possession 45%

11 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 5. · Nice 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	4	0	+31	+30.3	43
2	Marseille	17	11	3	3	+19	+3.1	36
3	Monaco	18	9	4	5	+9	+19.0	31
4	Nice	17	8	6	3	+12	+9.1	30
5	Lille	17	7	8	2	+10	+7.5	29
6	Lyon	17	8	4	5	+7	+6.3	28
7	Lens	17	7	6	4	+5	+7.6	27
8	Toulouse	17	7	3	7	+0	+7.7	24
9	Strasbourg	17	6	5	6	+1	-5.2	23
10	Auxerre	17	6	4	7	-2	-9.9	22
11	Brest	17	7	1	9	-4	-10.0	22
12	Reims	17	5	5	7	-2	-6.9	20
13	Angers	17	5	4	8	-8	-3.4	19
14	Rennes	17	5	2	10	-2	+0.7	17
15	Nantes	17	3	7	7	-7	-8.6	16
16	St Etienne	17	5	1	11	-21	-17.9	16
17	Le Havre	17	4	0	13	-23	-14.6	12
18	Montpellier	18	3	3	12	-25	-14.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+19	+17.3	25
2	Brest	9	6	1	2	+9	+1.0	19
3	Nice	8	5	3	0	+12	+8.0	18
4	Auxerre	9	5	3	1	+7	-0.3	18
5	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+4	+11.1	17
6	Rennes	9	5	1	3	+10	+5.6	16
7	Lyon	8	5	1	2	+5	+4.5	16
8	Strasbourg	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.6	15
9	Lille	8	4	3	1	+4	+1.5	15
10	St Etienne	8	5	0	3	+2	+1.7	15
11	Toulouse	9	4	2	3	+2	+5.4	14
12	Marseille	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.3	12
13	Montpellier	10	3	3	4	-8	-3.4	12
14	Lens	8	3	2	3	+0	+5.4	11
15	Nantes	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.0	9
16	Reims	9	2	3	4	-4	-4.0	9
17	Angers	8	2	1	5	-7	-4.8	7
18	Le Havre	9	2	0	7	-15	-8.6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	9	8	0	1	+17	+0.8	24
2	Paris SG	8	5	3	0	+12	+13.0	18
3	Lens	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.2	16
4	Lille	9	3	5	1	+6	+6.0	14
5	Monaco	9	4	2	3	+5	+8.0	14
6	Lyon	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
7	Nice	9	3	3	3	+0	+1.1	12
8	Angers	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.4	12
9	Reims	8	3	2	3	+2	-2.9	11
10	Toulouse	8	3	1	4	-2	+2.3	10
11	Strasbourg	9	2	2	5	-4	-5.9	8
12	Nantes	9	1	4	4	-6	-8.6	7
13	Le Havre	8	2	0	6	-8	-6.0	6
14	Auxerre	8	1	1	6	-9	-9.6	4
15	Brest	8	1	0	7	-13	-10.9	3
16	Rennes	8	0	1	7	-12	-4.9	1
17	St Etienne	9	0	1	8	-23	-19.6	1
18	Montpellier	8	0	0	8	-17	-11.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.