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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Lille

U S S U S

1–1

Full-time

Nantes

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 34%

47%

20%

Points per game

1,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

47%

Both score Ø 60%

53%

67%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,19 xG 1,33

71% Possession 29%

13 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 0

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 5. · Nantes 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	12	4	0	+30	+26.5	40
2	Marseille	15	9	3	3	+14	+0.3	30
3	Monaco	16	9	3	4	+10	+16.8	30
4	Nice	16	7	6	3	+10	+7.5	27
5	Lille	15	7	6	2	+10	+7.0	27
6	Lyon	15	7	4	4	+7	+5.8	25
7	Lens	15	6	6	3	+5	+7.4	24
8	Auxerre	15	6	3	6	+0	-8.2	21
9	Toulouse	15	6	3	6	+0	+8.2	21
10	Reims	16	5	5	6	+0	-5.3	20
11	Brest	15	6	1	8	-3	-8.8	19
12	Rennes	16	5	2	9	-1	+0.7	17
13	Strasbourg	15	4	5	6	-2	-7.4	17
14	St Etienne	16	5	1	10	-20	-14.1	16
15	Nantes	15	3	5	7	-7	-6.0	14
16	Angers	15	3	4	8	-12	-6.7	13
17	Le Havre	15	4	0	11	-18	-11.0	12
18	Montpellier	15	2	3	10	-23	-12.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	7	1	0	+18	+13.5	22
2	Nice	8	5	3	0	+12	+8.0	18
3	Auxerre	8	5	2	1	+7	+0.4	17
4	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+4	+11.1	17
5	Rennes	8	5	1	2	+11	+5.6	16
6	Brest	8	5	1	2	+8	+1.3	16
7	St Etienne	8	5	0	3	+2	+1.7	15
8	Lille	7	4	2	1	+4	+1.6	14
9	Toulouse	8	4	2	2	+3	+6.5	14
10	Lyon	7	4	1	2	+4	+4.3	13
11	Strasbourg	7	3	3	1	+3	-0.4	12
12	Lens	7	3	2	2	+1	+6.1	11
13	Marseille	7	2	3	2	-2	-0.5	9
14	Reims	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.3	9
15	Montpellier	8	2	3	3	-7	-1.5	9
16	Nantes	7	2	2	3	-1	+2.8	8
17	Le Havre	8	2	0	6	-14	-7.8	6
18	Angers	7	1	1	5	-9	-5.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	8	7	0	1	+16	+0.7	21
2	Paris SG	8	5	3	0	+12	+13.0	18
3	Lille	8	3	4	1	+6	+5.3	13
4	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+6	+5.7	13
5	Lens	8	3	4	1	+4	+1.4	13
6	Lyon	8	3	3	2	+3	+1.5	12
7	Reims	8	3	2	3	+2	-2.9	11
8	Nice	8	2	3	3	-2	-0.6	9
9	Angers	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.2	9
10	Toulouse	7	2	1	4	-3	+1.7	7
11	Le Havre	7	2	0	5	-4	-3.2	6
12	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-6	-8.8	6
13	Strasbourg	8	1	2	5	-5	-7.0	5
14	Auxerre	7	1	1	5	-7	-8.6	4
15	Brest	7	1	0	6	-11	-10.1	3
16	Rennes	8	0	1	7	-12	-4.9	1
17	St Etienne	8	0	1	7	-22	-15.8	1
18	Montpellier	7	0	0	7	-16	-10.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.