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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Montpellier

T S T U T

2–2

Full-time

Nice

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 29%

14%

43%

Points per game

0,6

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

71%

57%

Both score Ø 61%

50%

71%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

0,9

1,9

Conceded

2,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,6

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,97 xG 1,12

52% Possession 48%

20 Shots 18

8 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 18. · Nice 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	4	0	+26	+25.7	34
2	Marseille	15	9	3	3	+14	+0.3	30
3	Monaco	15	9	3	3	+12	+16.1	30
4	Lille	15	7	6	2	+10	+7.0	27
5	Lyon	14	7	4	3	+9	+7.2	25
6	Lens	15	6	6	3	+5	+7.4	24
7	Nice	14	6	5	3	+9	+8.5	23
8	Auxerre	15	6	3	6	+0	-8.2	21
9	Toulouse	15	6	3	6	+0	+8.2	21
10	Reims	15	5	5	5	+2	-4.2	20
11	Brest	14	5	1	8	-6	-9.6	16
12	Rennes	14	4	2	8	-2	+0.3	14
13	Nantes	14	3	5	6	-4	-5.2	14
14	Strasbourg	14	3	5	6	-5	-7.5	14
15	Angers	14	3	4	7	-10	-6.5	13
16	St Etienne	15	4	1	10	-22	-15.2	13
17	Le Havre	14	4	0	10	-15	-10.9	12
18	Montpellier	14	2	2	10	-23	-13.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+16	+12.1	19
2	Auxerre	8	5	2	1	+7	+0.4	17
3	Monaco	8	5	2	1	+6	+10.4	17
4	Nice	7	4	3	0	+11	+8.2	15
5	Lille	7	4	2	1	+4	+1.6	14
6	Toulouse	8	4	2	2	+3	+6.5	14
7	Rennes	7	4	1	2	+9	+5.4	13
8	Brest	7	4	1	2	+5	+0.5	13
9	Lyon	7	4	1	2	+4	+4.3	13
10	Strasbourg	7	3	3	1	+3	-0.4	12
11	St Etienne	7	4	0	3	+0	+0.5	12
12	Lens	7	3	2	2	+1	+6.1	11
13	Marseille	7	2	3	2	-2	-0.5	9
14	Reims	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.3	9
15	Nantes	7	2	2	3	-1	+2.8	8
16	Montpellier	7	2	2	3	-7	-2.3	8
17	Le Havre	7	2	0	5	-11	-7.7	6
18	Angers	7	1	1	5	-9	-5.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	8	7	0	1	+16	+0.7	21
2	Paris SG	7	4	3	0	+10	+13.7	15
3	Lille	8	3	4	1	+6	+5.3	13
4	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+6	+5.7	13
5	Lens	8	3	4	1	+4	+1.4	13
6	Lyon	7	3	3	1	+5	+2.9	12
7	Reims	7	3	2	2	+4	-1.8	11
8	Angers	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.0	9
9	Nice	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.3	8
10	Toulouse	7	2	1	4	-3	+1.7	7
11	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-3	-7.9	6
12	Le Havre	7	2	0	5	-4	-3.2	6
13	Auxerre	7	1	1	5	-7	-8.6	4
14	Brest	7	1	0	6	-11	-10.1	3
15	Strasbourg	7	0	2	5	-8	-7.1	2
16	Rennes	7	0	1	6	-11	-5.1	1
17	St Etienne	8	0	1	7	-22	-15.8	1
18	Montpellier	7	0	0	7	-16	-10.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.