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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Paris FC

T S S T U

2–0

Full-time

Lorient

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris FC Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

2,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

2,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,02 xG 0,97

59% Possession 41%

10 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris FC 11. · Lorient 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	5	0	1	+8	+3.8	15
2	Lyon	6	5	0	1	+5	+3.7	15
3	Marseille	6	4	0	2	+7	+3.0	12
4	Monaco	6	4	0	2	+4	+0.8	12
5	Strasbourg	6	4	0	2	+2	+2.2	12
6	Lille	6	3	1	2	+4	+4.0	10
7	Lens	6	3	1	2	+3	+3.6	10
8	Rennes	6	2	3	1	-1	-3.1	9
9	Brest	6	2	1	3	+0	-1.0	7
10	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-2	+0.5	7
11	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.3	7
12	Nice	6	2	1	3	-3	-0.9	7
13	Lorient	6	2	1	3	-5	-1.4	7
14	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-4	-3.5	6
15	Le Havre	6	1	2	3	-2	+1.9	5
16	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-2	-3.7	5
17	Angers	6	1	2	3	-3	-2.9	5
18	Metz	6	0	2	4	-8	-5.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.3	9
2	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.8	9
3	Lyon	3	3	0	0	+5	+5.1	9
4	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.6	9
5	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
6	Nice	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.7	7
7	Lens	3	2	0	1	+4	+4.5	6
8	Lille	3	2	0	1	+1	+4.0	6
9	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.4	6
10	Auxerre	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.3	6
11	Lorient	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.0	6
12	Brest	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.1	4
13	Le Havre	3	1	1	1	+1	+4.0	4
14	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
15	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.5	4
16	Angers	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.3	4
17	Paris FC	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.6	3
18	Metz	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.2	6
2	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.8	6
3	Lyon	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.4	6
4	Lille	3	1	1	1	+3	-0.0	4
5	Lens	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.9	4
6	Paris FC	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.9	4
7	Marseille	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.4	3
8	Toulouse	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.0	3
9	Brest	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.1	3
10	Monaco	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.0	3
11	Rennes	3	0	2	1	-4	-3.5	2
12	Nantes	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.0	1
13	Angers	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.7	1
14	Le Havre	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.1	1
15	Lorient	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.4	1
16	Nice	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.6	0
17	Auxerre	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.3	0
18	Metz	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.