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Ligue 1

Referee: François Letexier

Paris FC

S T T S S

2–3

Full-time

Strasbourg

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris FC Strasbourg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

50%

75%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

2,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,60 xG 2,38

61% Possession 39%

18 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris FC 10. · Strasbourg 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	4	0	0	+7	+3.2	12
2	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.7	12
3	Lille	5	3	1	1	+5	+3.0	10
4	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+3	+0.6	9
5	Lens	5	3	0	2	+3	+3.8	9
6	Strasbourg	4	3	0	1	+2	+2.1	9
7	Rennes	5	2	2	1	-1	-3.2	8
8	Marseille	4	2	0	2	+5	+1.8	6
9	Toulouse	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.7	6
10	Paris FC	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.4	6
11	Nice	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.0	6
12	Angers	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.9	5
13	Brest	5	1	1	3	-2	-2.1	4
14	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-2	-3.1	4
15	Le Havre	4	1	0	3	-2	+0.9	3
16	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.9	3
17	Lorient	4	1	0	3	-7	-1.2	3
18	Metz	4	0	1	3	-5	-4.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lyon	3	3	0	0	+5	+5.1	9
2	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+7	+3.9	6
3	Lens	3	2	0	1	+4	+4.5	6
4	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
5	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
6	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
7	Nice	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.6	6
8	Lille	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.1	6
9	Strasbourg	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.0	6
10	Brest	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.1	4
11	Angers	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
12	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
13	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.8	3
14	Paris FC	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
15	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
16	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.1	3
17	Lorient	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.0	3
18	Metz	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
2	Lille	3	1	1	1	+3	-0.0	4
3	Strasbourg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
4	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.6	3
5	Monaco	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
6	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
7	Lens	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.7	3
8	Paris FC	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.8	3
9	Rennes	3	0	2	1	-4	-3.5	2
10	Angers	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.7	1
11	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.0	0
12	Nantes	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
13	Le Havre	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
14	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
15	Metz	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.6	0
16	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.2	0
17	Nice	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.6	0
18	Lorient	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.