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Ligue 1

Referee: T Leonard

Marseille

S S T S T

4–0

Full-time

Lorient

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

4,3

Scored

2,2

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

4,3

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,3

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,26 xG 0,14

72% Possession 28%

15 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 0

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 5

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Marseille 10. · Lorient 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.3	9
2	Lyon	3	3	0	0	+5	+4.5	9
3	Lille	3	2	1	0	+7	+3.3	7
4	Monaco	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.2	6
5	Lens	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.1	6
6	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.3	6
7	Toulouse	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.3	6
8	Angers	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.8	4
9	Rennes	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.0	4
10	Marseille	3	1	0	2	+1	-0.3	3
11	Le Havre	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.6	3
12	Nice	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.3	3
13	Nantes	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.8	3
14	Auxerre	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.2	3
15	Paris FC	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.4	3
16	Lorient	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.9	3
17	Brest	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.8	1
18	Metz	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.5	6
2	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
3	Angers	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
4	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
5	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.8	3
6	Nice	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.6	3
7	Lens	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
8	Paris FC	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
9	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
10	Lille	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
11	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
12	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
13	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
14	Nantes	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.5	3
15	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.1	3
16	Lorient	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.0	3
17	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
18	Metz	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
2	Lille	2	1	1	0	+6	+1.6	4
3	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
4	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
5	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
6	Strasbourg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
7	Rennes	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.7	1
8	Monaco	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
9	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
10	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
11	Lorient	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
12	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
13	Nice	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
14	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.0	0
15	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
16	Metz	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.6	0
17	Paris FC	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
18	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.