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Ligue 1

Referee: Jeremie Pignard

Nice

S S T T T

1–5

Full-time

Marseille

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 55%

42%

67%

Points per game

1,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

58%

67%

Both score Ø 55%

67%

42%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

1,4

2,3

Conceded

1,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,19 xG 2,86

53% Possession 47%

15 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 11

5 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 9. · Marseille 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	3	1	+13	+9.4	27
2	Marseille	12	8	1	3	+17	+10.4	25
3	Lens	12	8	1	3	+10	+3.1	25
4	Strasbourg	12	7	1	4	+8	+8.5	22
5	Lille	12	6	2	4	+8	+7.0	20
6	Monaco	12	6	2	4	+3	+7.3	20
7	Lyon	12	6	2	4	+3	+6.3	20
8	Rennes	12	4	6	2	+2	-2.6	18
9	Nice	12	5	2	5	-1	-8.2	17
10	Toulouse	12	4	4	4	+2	+0.4	16
11	Paris FC	12	4	2	6	-3	-1.3	14
12	Le Havre	12	3	5	4	-4	+0.5	14
13	Angers	12	3	4	5	-5	-10.5	13
14	Metz	12	3	2	7	-15	-9.0	11
15	Brest	12	2	4	6	-7	-1.6	10
16	Nantes	12	2	4	6	-7	-11.5	10
17	Lorient	12	2	4	6	-12	-2.3	10
18	Auxerre	12	2	1	9	-12	-6.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	6	5	1	0	+15	+11.0	16
2	Strasbourg	6	5	0	1	+11	+10.2	15
3	Lens	6	5	0	1	+9	+7.0	15
4	Lille	6	4	1	1	+7	+6.5	13
5	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.9	13
6	Nice	6	4	1	1	+5	-1.3	13
7	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+3	+6.5	13
8	Lyon	6	4	0	2	+4	+5.5	12
9	Rennes	6	3	2	1	+5	+2.7	11
10	Angers	6	3	2	1	+3	-2.5	11
11	Toulouse	6	2	3	1	+3	+2.8	9
12	Le Havre	6	2	3	1	+2	+5.8	9
13	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+0	+0.4	9
14	Metz	6	2	2	2	-1	-0.5	8
15	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	+0	+1.5	7
16	Brest	6	1	3	2	-1	+3.3	6
17	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-2	-0.6	6
18	Nantes	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	4	2	1	+7	+4.5	14
2	Lens	6	3	1	2	+1	-3.9	10
3	Marseille	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.6	9
4	Lyon	6	2	2	2	-1	+0.7	8
5	Lille	6	2	1	3	+1	+0.5	7
6	Monaco	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.8	7
7	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-1	-2.4	7
8	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.7	7
9	Rennes	6	1	4	1	-3	-5.3	7
10	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.8	7
11	Nantes	6	1	3	2	-1	-5.4	6
12	Le Havre	6	1	2	3	-6	-5.3	5
13	Nice	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.9	4
14	Brest	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.9	4
15	Metz	6	1	0	5	-14	-8.5	3
16	Angers	6	0	2	4	-8	-8.1	2
17	Auxerre	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.4	1
18	Lorient	6	0	1	5	-12	-2.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.