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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Marseille

T T T S U

2–2

Full-time

Nice

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 40%

34%

45%

Points per game

1,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

45%

31%

Both score Ø 43%

52%

34%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,24 xG 1,43

48% Possession 52%

11 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 9. · Nice 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	30	20	9	1	+47	+25.9	69
2	Monaco	29	16	7	6	+17	+8.5	55
3	Brest	30	15	8	7	+15	+9.4	53
4	Lille	29	14	10	5	+18	+14.0	52
5	Nice	29	13	8	8	+9	+13.2	47
6	Lens	30	13	7	10	+7	+2.5	46
7	Rennes	30	11	9	10	+8	+8.8	42
8	Lyon	30	12	5	13	-10	-5.3	41
9	Marseille	29	10	10	9	+8	+17.1	40
10	Reims	30	11	7	12	-4	+2.1	40
11	Toulouse	30	9	10	11	-3	-7.5	37
12	Montpellier	30	9	10	11	-4	+2.3	37
13	Strasbourg	30	9	9	12	-8	-1.2	36
14	Nantes	30	9	4	17	-20	-15.8	31
15	Metz	30	8	5	17	-18	-19.1	29
16	Le Havre	30	6	10	14	-11	-11.5	28
17	Lorient	30	6	8	16	-23	-17.7	26
18	Clermont	30	4	10	16	-28	-25.6	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	15	11	3	1	+21	+17.8	36
2	Paris SG	15	9	5	1	+22	+18.1	32
3	Marseille	14	8	5	1	+15	+15.0	29
4	Brest	15	8	5	2	+11	+13.1	29
5	Nice	15	8	4	3	+10	+9.9	28
6	Lens	15	8	3	4	+7	+6.1	27
7	Rennes	15	7	3	5	+9	+11.8	24
8	Monaco	14	7	3	4	+8	+8.7	24
9	Strasbourg	15	6	3	6	+0	+3.0	21
10	Reims	15	6	3	6	-1	+4.4	21
11	Lyon	15	5	4	6	-6	+1.4	19
12	Montpellier	15	3	8	4	-1	+8.2	17
13	Le Havre	15	5	2	8	-2	+2.2	17
14	Toulouse	15	3	7	5	+0	+4.0	16
15	Lorient	15	3	4	8	-8	-5.9	13
16	Metz	14	3	3	8	-6	-2.6	12
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	-7.7	12
18	Clermont	15	2	5	8	-15	-8.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	4	0	+25	+7.8	37
2	Monaco	15	9	4	2	+9	-0.2	31
3	Brest	15	7	3	5	+4	-3.7	24
4	Lyon	15	7	1	7	-4	-6.6	22
5	Toulouse	15	6	3	6	-3	-11.5	21
6	Montpellier	15	6	2	7	-3	-5.9	20
7	Lens	15	5	4	6	+0	-3.6	19
8	Nice	14	5	4	5	-1	+3.3	19
9	Reims	15	5	4	6	-3	-2.3	19
10	Nantes	14	6	1	7	-8	-8.1	19
11	Rennes	15	4	6	5	-1	-3.0	18
12	Metz	16	5	2	9	-12	-16.5	17
13	Lille	14	3	7	4	-3	-3.8	16
14	Strasbourg	15	3	6	6	-8	-4.2	15
15	Lorient	15	3	4	8	-15	-11.8	13
16	Marseille	15	2	5	8	-7	+2.1	11
17	Le Havre	15	1	8	6	-9	-13.7	11
18	Clermont	15	2	5	8	-13	-17.1	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.