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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Man City

S S U S S

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

2,2

2,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 50%

52%

48%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

64%

70%

Both score Ø 63%

58%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,9

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,09 xG 1,68

62% Possession 38%

14 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 5. · Aston Villa 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	33	24	7	2	+44	+44.9	79
2	Arsenal	33	18	12	3	+34	+25.9	66
3	Nott'm Forest	33	18	6	9	+14	-2.4	60
4	Newcastle	33	18	5	10	+18	+13.0	59
5	Man City	33	17	7	9	+22	+17.1	58
6	Chelsea	33	16	9	8	+18	+19.1	57
7	Aston Villa	33	16	9	8	+6	+7.5	57
8	Bournemouth	33	13	10	10	+12	+17.2	49
9	Fulham	33	13	9	11	+3	+3.5	48
10	Brighton	33	12	12	9	+0	+4.6	48
11	Brentford	33	13	7	13	+6	-0.4	46
12	Crystal Palace	33	11	11	11	-4	+6.3	44
13	Everton	33	8	14	11	-6	-5.3	38
14	Man United	33	10	8	15	-8	-5.2	38
15	Wolves	33	11	5	17	-13	-13.5	38
16	Tottenham	33	11	4	18	+10	+0.9	37
17	West Ham	33	9	9	15	-18	-11.3	36
18	Ipswich	33	4	9	20	-38	-37.4	21
19	Leicester	33	4	6	23	-46	-38.5	18
20	Southampton	33	2	5	26	-54	-46.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	2	1	+22	+20.9	41
2	Arsenal	16	10	5	1	+18	+17.1	35
3	Aston Villa	17	9	7	1	+11	+14.5	34
4	Man City	16	10	3	3	+16	+15.4	33
5	Newcastle	16	10	2	4	+16	+7.2	32
6	Chelsea	16	9	5	2	+13	+16.0	32
7	Nott'm Forest	16	9	4	3	+13	+3.6	31
8	Brentford	17	8	4	5	+5	+4.4	28
9	Fulham	17	7	5	5	+1	+0.7	26
10	Brighton	16	6	7	3	+2	+6.6	25
11	Bournemouth	16	7	3	6	+6	+9.9	24
12	Tottenham	17	6	3	8	+5	+2.2	21
13	Crystal Palace	17	5	6	6	-4	+6.1	21
14	Man United	17	6	3	8	-5	+0.9	21
15	Everton	17	4	8	5	+1	-0.5	20
16	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-10	-8.4	19
17	Wolves	16	5	2	9	-6	-5.7	17
18	Leicester	17	2	3	12	-23	-16.7	9
19	Ipswich	17	1	4	12	-27	-16.3	7
20	Southampton	16	1	2	13	-32	-25.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	11	5	1	+22	+24.1	38
2	Arsenal	17	8	7	2	+16	+8.9	31
3	Nott'm Forest	17	9	2	6	+1	-5.9	29
4	Newcastle	17	8	3	6	+2	+5.8	27
5	Bournemouth	17	6	7	4	+6	+7.2	25
6	Man City	17	7	4	6	+6	+1.7	25
7	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+5	+3.1	25
8	Crystal Palace	16	6	5	5	+0	+0.2	23
9	Brighton	17	6	5	6	-2	-2.1	23
10	Aston Villa	16	7	2	7	-5	-7.0	23
11	Fulham	16	6	4	6	+2	+2.8	22
12	Wolves	17	6	3	8	-7	-7.8	21
13	Brentford	16	5	3	8	+1	-4.7	18
14	Everton	16	4	6	6	-7	-4.8	18
15	Man United	16	4	5	7	-3	-6.1	17
16	West Ham	16	4	5	7	-8	-2.9	17
17	Tottenham	16	5	1	10	+5	-1.2	16
18	Ipswich	16	3	5	8	-11	-21.1	14
19	Leicester	16	2	3	11	-23	-21.8	9
20	Southampton	17	1	3	13	-22	-20.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.