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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Aston Villa

S T S T T

1–1

Full-time

Man City

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

4,8

Scored

1,3

3,7

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,5

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

20%

80%

Points per game

0,6

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,6

4,8

Scored

0,8

3,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+2,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

28% Possession 72%

3 Shots 13

1 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 4

5 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 19. · Man City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	Man City	5	4	1	0	+14	13
4	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	-1	10
6	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	+9	9
7	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+6	9
8	Man United	5	3	0	2	-2	9
9	Leeds	6	2	2	2	+0	8
10	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Newcastle	6	1	4	1	+1	7
12	Southampton	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	-13	7
14	Wolves	6	1	3	2	-1	6
15	Crystal Palace	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Everton	6	0	4	2	-2	4
17	West Ham	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Nott'm Forest	6	1	1	4	-10	4
19	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-5	3
20	Leicester	5	0	1	4	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+12	9
2	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+10	7
5	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+7	7
6	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+2	7
9	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	+2	5
10	Wolves	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Everton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	West Ham	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Man United	3	2	0	1	-2	6
4	Tottenham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	West Ham	3	1	0	2	-1	3
7	Southampton	3	1	0	2	-3	3
8	Chelsea	3	1	0	2	-3	3
9	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-12	3
10	Brentford	3	0	2	1	-1	2
11	Liverpool	3	0	2	1	-1	2
12	Everton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
13	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Crystal Palace	3	0	2	1	-2	2
15	Fulham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Leeds	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Nott'm Forest	3	0	1	2	-8	1
19	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Aston Villa	3	0	0	3	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.