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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Aston Villa

S S T S S

4–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

83%

100%

Points per game

2,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

2,5

2,8

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 52%

47%

56%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

69%

66%

Both score Ø 60%

66%

53%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,9

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,26 xG 1,00

48% Possession 52%

23 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 7. · Newcastle 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	32	23	7	2	+43	+42.6	76
2	Arsenal	32	17	12	3	+30	+23.6	63
3	Newcastle	32	18	5	9	+21	+14.2	59
4	Man City	33	17	7	9	+22	+17.1	58
5	Nott'm Forest	32	17	6	9	+13	-0.7	57
6	Chelsea	32	15	9	8	+17	+18.4	54
7	Aston Villa	32	15	9	8	+3	+6.3	54
8	Bournemouth	33	13	10	10	+12	+17.2	49
9	Fulham	32	13	9	10	+4	+4.2	48
10	Brighton	33	12	12	9	+0	+4.6	48
11	Brentford	33	13	7	13	+6	-0.4	46
12	Crystal Palace	33	11	11	11	-4	+6.3	44
13	Everton	33	8	14	11	-6	-5.3	38
14	Man United	32	10	8	14	-7	-6.2	38
15	Tottenham	32	11	4	17	+11	-0.7	37
16	West Ham	33	9	9	15	-18	-11.3	36
17	Wolves	32	10	5	17	-14	-12.4	35
18	Ipswich	32	4	9	19	-34	-35.0	21
19	Leicester	32	4	6	22	-45	-36.2	18
20	Southampton	33	2	5	26	-54	-46.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	2	1	+22	+20.9	41
2	Arsenal	16	10	5	1	+18	+17.1	35
3	Man City	16	10	3	3	+16	+15.4	33
4	Newcastle	16	10	2	4	+16	+7.2	32
5	Chelsea	16	9	5	2	+13	+16.0	32
6	Nott'm Forest	16	9	4	3	+13	+3.6	31
7	Aston Villa	16	8	7	1	+8	+13.3	31
8	Brentford	17	8	4	5	+5	+4.4	28
9	Fulham	16	7	5	4	+2	+1.3	26
10	Brighton	16	6	7	3	+2	+6.6	25
11	Bournemouth	16	7	3	6	+6	+9.9	24
12	Tottenham	16	6	3	7	+6	+0.5	21
13	Man United	16	6	3	7	-4	-0.1	21
14	Crystal Palace	17	5	6	6	-4	+6.1	21
15	Everton	17	4	8	5	+1	-0.5	20
16	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-10	-8.4	19
17	Wolves	16	5	2	9	-6	-5.7	17
18	Leicester	16	2	3	11	-22	-14.4	9
19	Ipswich	16	1	4	11	-23	-13.9	7
20	Southampton	16	1	2	13	-32	-25.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	10	5	1	+21	+21.8	35
2	Arsenal	16	7	7	2	+12	+6.5	28
3	Newcastle	16	8	3	5	+5	+7.1	27
4	Nott'm Forest	16	8	2	6	+0	-4.3	26
5	Bournemouth	17	6	7	4	+6	+7.2	25
6	Man City	17	7	4	6	+6	+1.7	25
7	Crystal Palace	16	6	5	5	+0	+0.2	23
8	Brighton	17	6	5	6	-2	-2.1	23
9	Aston Villa	16	7	2	7	-5	-7.0	23
10	Chelsea	16	6	4	6	+4	+2.4	22
11	Fulham	16	6	4	6	+2	+2.8	22
12	Brentford	16	5	3	8	+1	-4.7	18
13	Everton	16	4	6	6	-7	-4.8	18
14	Wolves	16	5	3	8	-8	-6.8	18
15	Man United	16	4	5	7	-3	-6.1	17
16	West Ham	16	4	5	7	-8	-2.9	17
17	Tottenham	16	5	1	10	+5	-1.2	16
18	Ipswich	16	3	5	8	-11	-21.1	14
19	Leicester	16	2	3	11	-23	-21.8	9
20	Southampton	17	1	3	13	-22	-20.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.