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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Man City

T U S S U

5–2

Full-time

Crystal Palace

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Crystal Palace

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 43%

48%

37%

Points per game

1,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

65%

43%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

57%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

3,81 xG 1,82

68% Possession 32%

21 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 6. · Crystal Palace 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	31	22	7	2	+42	+42.4	73
2	Arsenal	31	17	11	3	+30	+22.8	62
3	Nott'm Forest	31	17	6	8	+14	+0.1	57
4	Chelsea	31	15	8	8	+17	+17.2	53
5	Newcastle	30	16	5	9	+13	+13.2	53
6	Man City	31	15	7	9	+17	+14.0	52
7	Aston Villa	31	14	9	8	+0	+3.5	51
8	Fulham	31	13	9	9	+5	+4.6	48
9	Brighton	31	12	11	8	+2	+2.9	47
10	Bournemouth	31	12	9	10	+11	+16.4	45
11	Crystal Palace	30	11	10	9	+4	+8.1	43
12	Brentford	31	12	6	13	+4	-0.4	42
13	Man United	31	10	8	13	-4	-4.8	38
14	Tottenham	31	11	4	16	+13	-0.3	37
15	Everton	31	7	14	10	-5	-5.0	35
16	West Ham	31	9	8	14	-17	-11.3	35
17	Wolves	31	9	5	17	-16	-12.8	32
18	Ipswich	31	4	8	19	-34	-33.8	20
19	Leicester	31	4	5	22	-45	-33.8	17
20	Southampton	31	2	4	25	-51	-43.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	2	1	+21	+20.6	38
2	Arsenal	15	10	4	1	+18	+16.4	34
3	Nott'm Forest	15	9	4	2	+14	+4.4	31
4	Chelsea	15	9	4	2	+13	+14.8	31
5	Aston Villa	16	8	7	1	+8	+13.3	31
6	Man City	15	9	3	3	+13	+13.4	30
7	Newcastle	14	8	2	4	+8	+6.2	26
8	Fulham	16	7	5	4	+2	+1.3	26
9	Brentford	16	7	4	5	+3	+3.6	25
10	Brighton	15	6	6	3	+2	+4.2	24
11	Tottenham	16	6	3	7	+6	+0.5	21
12	Bournemouth	15	6	3	6	+5	+9.5	21
13	Man United	16	6	3	7	-4	-0.1	21
14	Everton	16	4	8	4	+3	+0.7	20
15	Crystal Palace	16	5	5	6	-4	+6.5	20
16	West Ham	16	5	3	8	-10	-8.6	18
17	Wolves	15	4	2	9	-8	-6.1	14
18	Leicester	16	2	3	11	-22	-14.4	9
19	Ipswich	16	1	4	11	-23	-13.9	7
20	Southampton	15	1	2	12	-29	-22.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	10	5	1	+21	+21.8	35
2	Arsenal	16	7	7	2	+12	+6.5	28
3	Newcastle	16	8	3	5	+5	+7.1	27
4	Nott'm Forest	16	8	2	6	+0	-4.3	26
5	Bournemouth	16	6	6	4	+6	+6.9	24
6	Crystal Palace	14	6	5	3	+8	+1.7	23
7	Brighton	16	6	5	5	+0	-1.4	23
8	Chelsea	16	6	4	6	+4	+2.4	22
9	Man City	16	6	4	6	+4	+0.6	22
10	Fulham	15	6	4	5	+3	+3.2	22
11	Aston Villa	15	6	2	7	-8	-9.7	20
12	Wolves	16	5	3	8	-8	-6.8	18
13	Brentford	15	5	2	8	+1	-4.0	17
14	Man United	15	4	5	6	+0	-4.6	17
15	West Ham	15	4	5	6	-7	-2.6	17
16	Tottenham	15	5	1	9	+7	-0.8	16
17	Everton	15	3	6	6	-8	-5.7	15
18	Ipswich	15	3	4	8	-11	-19.9	13
19	Leicester	15	2	2	11	-23	-19.4	8
20	Southampton	16	1	2	13	-22	-20.6	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.