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Eredivisie
Referee: R Dieperink
AZ Alkmaar
T S T U U
2–2
Full-time
Waalwijk
S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Waalwijk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,8
3,3
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
2,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 24/26 matches
Win Ø 31%
46%
15%
Points per game
1,6
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
63%
65%
Both score Ø 58%
58%
58%
Average goals
2,6
3,3
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,2
2,1
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,38 xG 0,83
62% Possession 38%
24 Shots 6
6 Shots on target 2
8 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
12 Corners 5
10 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 7. · Waalwijk 18.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Ajax 27 21 4 2 +37 +25.5 67
2 PSV Eindhoven 27 18 4 5 +46 +34.1 58
3 Utrecht 27 15 7 5 +9 +3.0 52
4 Feyenoord 26 14 8 4 +26 +23.1 50
5 Go Ahead Eagles 27 13 5 9 +6 +10.5 44
6 Twente 25 12 7 6 +13 +13.8 43
7 AZ Alkmaar 24 11 6 7 +7 +9.0 39
8 Groningen 26 8 8 10 -9 -8.6 32
9 For Sittard 27 9 5 13 -14 -4.9 32
10 Heerenveen 26 8 7 11 -8 -1.4 31
11 Heracles 27 7 10 10 -13 -14.2 31
12 Nijmegen 26 8 6 12 +2 +1.0 30
13 NAC Breda 27 8 6 13 -16 -14.7 30
14 Zwolle 27 7 8 12 -9 -20.4 29
15 Sparta Rotterdam 27 6 10 11 -7 +0.6 28
16 Willem II 27 6 6 15 -16 -22.9 24
17 Almere City 27 4 6 17 -32 -15.4 18
18 Waalwijk 26 4 5 17 -22 -18.2 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Waalwijk
1–0 T. Parrott
I. Sadiq
13′
42′
🟨 Richard van der Venne
Half-time 1–0
D. Kasius 🔁
↦ I. Sadiq
58′
R. van Bommel 🔁
↦ M. de Wit
58′
58′
🔁 J. Familia-Castillo
↦ A. Meijers
58′
🔁 C. Lokesa
↦ R. van der Venne
62′
M. Kramer 1–1
Y. Oukili
M. Dekker 🔁
↦ W. Goes
70′
M. Meerdink 🔁
↦ P. Koopmeiners
70′
K. Belić 🔁
↦ E. Dijkstra
70′
71′
🔁 R. Margaret
↦ O. Zawada
82′
C. Lokesa 1–2
J. Familia-Castillo
2–2 M. Meerdink
D. Møller Wolfe
84′
85′
🟨 Roshon van Eijma
89′
🟨 Chris Lokesa
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 R. Owusu-Oduro G
43 E. Dijkstra D
3 W. Goes D
5 Alexandre Penetra D
18 D. Møller Wolfe D
6 P. Koopmeiners M
26 K. Smit M
28 Z. Buurmeester M
11 I. Sadiq F
9 T. Parrott F
34 M. de Wit F
Bench (11)
30 D. Kasius
7 R. van Bommel
22 M. Dekker
35 M. Meerdink
14 K. Belić
12 H. Verhulst
48 J. Oerip
41 J. Zoet
4 B. Martins Indi
27 R. Daal
21 E. Poku

Coach: M. Martens

Waalwijk

3-1-4-2
1 J. Houwen G
4 L. van Gelderen D
17 R. van Eijma D
32 R. El Yaakoubi D
24 G. Roemeratoe M
2 J. Lelieveld M
6 Y. Oukili M
23 R. van der Venne M
28 A. Meijers M
9 O. Zawada F
29 M. Kramer F
Bench (12)
5 J. Familia-Castillo
14 C. Lokesa
19 R. Margaret
52 M. Ihattaren
18 S. van der Water
8 P. Vroegh
16 M. Spenkelink
13 J. Kesting
7 D. Cleonise
22 T. van de Loo
35 K. Felida
11 A. Jakobsen

Coach: H. Fraser

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,29
U ✓
5,70
B
9,30
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,45
U2,5
2,63
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Dieperink · 77 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.