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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

AZ Alkmaar

S S S T T

3–2

Full-time

Waalwijk

S U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Waalwijk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 37%

52%

21%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

62%

48%

Both score Ø 50%

48%

52%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,9

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,09 xG 0,63

71% Possession 29%

21 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 4. · Waalwijk 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	30	26	3	1	+78	+61.7	81
2	Feyenoord	29	21	6	2	+53	+58.1	69
3	Twente	29	18	6	5	+27	+18.4	60
4	AZ Alkmaar	29	15	7	7	+23	+13.5	52
5	Nijmegen	28	12	9	7	+15	-13.6	45
6	Ajax	29	12	9	8	+6	+7.3	45
7	Utrecht	29	11	9	9	+1	-4.3	42
8	Go Ahead Eagles	28	11	8	9	+6	-4.9	41
9	Sparta Rotterdam	29	10	7	12	+1	-6.8	37
10	For Sittard	29	9	8	12	-17	+2.0	35
11	Heerenveen	29	9	6	14	-8	-3.9	33
12	Almere City	29	7	12	10	-17	-13.7	33
13	Heracles	29	9	5	15	-20	-20.8	32
14	Zwolle	29	8	7	14	-18	-12.1	31
15	Excelsior	30	5	10	15	-20	-13.1	25
16	Waalwijk	29	6	6	17	-20	-11.6	24
17	Volendam	30	4	7	19	-44	-32.3	19
18	Vitesse	30	4	5	21	-46	-24.0	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	14	1	0	+39	+34.0	43
2	Twente	15	12	1	2	+16	+14.8	37
3	Feyenoord	15	11	3	1	+32	+32.7	36
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	2	3	+21	+15.5	29
5	Ajax	14	7	5	2	+14	+9.4	26
6	Nijmegen	13	8	2	3	+14	+2.5	26
7	Go Ahead Eagles	15	7	4	4	+13	+5.1	25
8	For Sittard	14	7	4	3	+8	+14.4	25
9	Utrecht	14	6	5	3	+5	+3.1	23
10	Heerenveen	15	6	3	6	+4	+6.3	21
11	Heracles	14	6	3	5	-3	-5.9	21
12	Sparta Rotterdam	15	4	5	6	-2	+1.9	17
13	Excelsior	15	3	7	5	-2	+2.5	16
14	Waalwijk	15	4	4	7	-5	-1.9	16
15	Almere City	14	3	6	5	-8	-4.6	15
16	Zwolle	15	4	3	8	-13	+2.0	15
17	Volendam	15	3	2	10	-24	-8.9	11
18	Vitesse	15	1	5	9	-16	-5.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	12	2	1	+39	+27.7	38
2	Feyenoord	14	10	3	1	+21	+25.4	33
3	Twente	14	6	5	3	+11	+3.6	23
4	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	5	4	+2	-2.0	23
5	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	2	6	+3	-8.7	20
6	Nijmegen	15	4	7	4	+1	-16.1	19
7	Utrecht	15	5	4	6	-4	-7.4	19
8	Ajax	15	5	4	6	-8	-2.1	19
9	Almere City	15	4	6	5	-9	-9.1	18
10	Zwolle	14	4	4	6	-5	-14.1	16
11	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	4	5	-7	-10.0	16
12	Heerenveen	14	3	3	8	-12	-10.2	12
13	Heracles	15	3	2	10	-17	-14.9	11
14	For Sittard	15	2	4	9	-25	-12.5	10
15	Excelsior	15	2	3	10	-18	-15.6	9
16	Vitesse	15	3	0	12	-30	-18.5	9
17	Waalwijk	14	2	2	10	-15	-9.7	8
18	Volendam	15	1	5	9	-20	-23.3	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.