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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

Willem II

T T T T U

1–2

Full-time

Heracles

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Willem II Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 23%

19%

26%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

42%

52%

Both score Ø 57%

52%

61%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,80 xG 2,22

53% Possession 47%

9 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 10

2 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Willem II 16. · Heracles 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	31	23	5	3	+36	+31.0	74
2	PSV Eindhoven	31	22	4	5	+58	+43.1	70
3	Feyenoord	31	19	8	4	+39	+25.3	65
4	Utrecht	31	18	8	5	+19	+4.1	62
5	Twente	29	13	9	7	+13	+12.7	48
6	Go Ahead Eagles	31	13	8	10	+3	+7.9	47
7	AZ Alkmaar	29	12	8	9	+8	+12.1	44
8	Heerenveen	30	11	7	12	-6	-1.0	40
9	Groningen	31	10	8	13	-8	-6.5	38
10	For Sittard	31	10	6	15	-18	-8.7	36
11	Sparta Rotterdam	31	8	11	12	-5	-0.2	35
12	Heracles	31	8	11	12	-18	-16.7	35
13	Nijmegen	30	9	7	14	+0	+2.5	34
14	Zwolle	31	8	10	13	-11	-20.7	34
15	NAC Breda	31	8	8	15	-20	-16.9	32
16	Willem II	31	6	7	18	-20	-29.0	25
17	Almere City	31	4	8	19	-38	-16.3	20
18	Waalwijk	31	4	7	20	-32	-22.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	3	1	+37	+27.8	39
2	Ajax	15	12	3	0	+25	+21.8	39
3	Feyenoord	15	10	3	2	+19	+15.1	33
4	Heerenveen	16	9	6	1	+13	+8.8	33
5	Go Ahead Eagles	16	9	4	3	+9	+12.9	31
6	Groningen	16	8	5	3	+13	+5.5	29
7	Utrecht	16	9	2	5	+4	+6.6	29
8	Twente	14	8	4	2	+12	+12.0	28
9	Heracles	16	6	7	3	+3	+3.3	25
10	NAC Breda	16	6	5	5	-1	-0.1	23
11	Nijmegen	16	5	6	5	+9	+8.9	21
12	Zwolle	15	6	3	6	+2	-4.3	21
13	For Sittard	15	7	0	8	-8	+1.8	21
14	AZ Alkmaar	13	5	3	5	+1	+10.6	18
15	Sparta Rotterdam	16	4	6	6	-2	+4.8	18
16	Willem II	15	3	3	9	-5	-10.7	12
17	Waalwijk	15	3	3	9	-10	-6.9	12
18	Almere City	15	2	4	9	-20	-0.3	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	16	11	2	3	+11	+9.2	35
2	Utrecht	15	9	6	0	+15	-2.5	33
3	Feyenoord	16	9	5	2	+20	+10.2	32
4	PSV Eindhoven	15	10	1	4	+21	+15.3	31
5	AZ Alkmaar	16	7	5	4	+7	+1.5	26
6	Twente	15	5	5	5	+1	+0.7	20
7	Sparta Rotterdam	15	4	5	6	-3	-4.9	17
8	Go Ahead Eagles	15	4	4	7	-6	-5.0	16
9	For Sittard	16	3	6	7	-10	-10.6	15
10	Nijmegen	14	4	1	9	-9	-6.4	13
11	Zwolle	16	2	7	7	-13	-16.4	13
12	Willem II	16	3	4	9	-15	-18.3	13
13	Almere City	16	2	4	10	-18	-16.1	10
14	Heracles	15	2	4	9	-21	-20.0	10
15	NAC Breda	15	2	3	10	-19	-16.8	9
16	Groningen	15	2	3	10	-21	-12.1	9
17	Heerenveen	14	2	1	11	-19	-9.8	7
18	Waalwijk	16	1	4	11	-22	-15.7	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.