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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Benfica

S S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Belenenses

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

2,5

0,7

Conceded

0,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 61%

95%

26%

Points per game

2,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

47%

37%

Both score Ø 29%

21%

37%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

2,4

0,7

Conceded

0,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 9

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 1. · Belenenses 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	19	18	0	1	+39	54
2	Porto	19	15	2	2	+29	47
3	Sp Lisbon	19	11	2	6	+11	35
4	Famalicao	19	10	4	5	+7	34
5	Rio Ave	19	9	4	6	+5	31
6	Sp Braga	19	9	3	7	+7	30
7	Guimaraes	19	6	8	5	+6	26
8	Setubal	18	6	7	5	-3	25
9	Vitoria Setubal	18	6	7	5	-3	25
10	Gil Vicente	19	5	8	6	-1	23
11	Boavista	19	5	7	7	-4	22
12	Maritimo	19	4	9	6	-8	21
13	Santa Clara	19	5	6	8	-8	21
14	Tondela	20	5	6	9	-10	21
15	Moreirense	19	4	7	8	-5	19
16	Belenenses	19	5	3	11	-19	18
17	Pacos Ferreira	19	4	4	11	-14	16
18	Portimonense	19	2	9	8	-13	15
19	Aves	19	3	0	16	-16	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	0	1	+22	27
2	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+22	27
3	Famalicao	10	6	2	2	+10	20
4	Gil Vicente	10	4	6	0	+7	18
5	Guimaraes	10	5	2	3	+9	17
6	Rio Ave	10	5	2	3	+5	17
7	Sp Lisbon	9	5	0	4	+2	15
8	Moreirense	9	4	2	3	+2	14
9	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+2	14
10	Setubal	9	3	5	1	+1	14
11	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	5	1	+1	14
12	Maritimo	9	2	5	2	-1	11
13	Pacos Ferreira	11	3	2	6	-4	11
14	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Belenenses	10	3	1	6	-10	10
16	Aves	9	3	0	6	+0	9
17	Santa Clara	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Portimonense	8	1	4	3	-3	7
19	Tondela	10	1	3	6	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	9	0	0	+17	27
2	Sp Lisbon	10	6	2	2	+9	20
3	Porto	9	6	2	1	+7	20
4	Sp Braga	11	5	1	5	+5	16
5	Tondela	10	4	3	3	+0	15
6	Rio Ave	9	4	2	3	+0	14
7	Famalicao	9	4	2	3	-3	14
8	Santa Clara	9	3	3	3	-2	12
9	Boavista	10	3	3	4	-2	12
10	Setubal	9	3	2	4	-4	11
11	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	2	4	-4	11
12	Maritimo	10	2	4	4	-7	10
13	Guimaraes	9	1	6	2	-3	9
14	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-9	8
15	Portimonense	11	1	5	5	-10	8
16	Moreirense	10	0	5	5	-7	5
17	Gil Vicente	9	1	2	6	-8	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	2	5	-10	5
19	Aves	10	0	0	10	-16	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.