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Primeira Liga
Referee: Tiago Martins
Belenenses
S T S U T
1–7
Full-time
Sp Braga
U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Sp Braga
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
2,3
2,0
Scored
0,7
1,0
Conceded
1,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 14/15 matches
Win Ø 31%
29%
33%
Points per game
1,1
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 35%
36%
33%
Both score Ø 35%
36%
33%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
0,8
1,1
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–4

37% Possession 63%
3 Shots 18
2 Shots on target 15
3 Blocked shots 0
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 4
3 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Belenenses 16. · Sp Braga 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 15 14 0 1 +33 42
2 Porto 15 12 2 1 +26 38
3 Sp Lisbon 14 8 2 4 +9 26
4 Famalicao 14 7 3 4 +1 24
5 Guimaraes 15 5 7 3 +7 22
6 Rio Ave 15 6 4 5 +2 22
7 Boavista 16 4 7 5 -2 19
8 Setubal 14 4 7 3 -2 19
9 Vitoria Setubal 14 4 7 3 -2 19
10 Tondela 15 5 4 6 -3 19
11 Moreirense 15 4 6 5 -1 18
12 Sp Braga 15 5 3 7 -2 18
13 Gil Vicente 15 4 6 5 -2 18
14 Santa Clara 16 4 6 6 -7 18
15 Maritimo 15 3 7 5 -8 16
16 Belenenses 14 4 3 7 -10 15
17 Portimonense 16 2 8 6 -9 14
18 Pacos Ferreira 15 3 2 10 -13 11
19 Aves 16 2 0 14 -17 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Belenenses Sp Braga
8′
Ricardo Horta 0–1
Paulinho
19′
Trincão 0–2
Nuno Sequeira
Silvestre Varela 🟨
20′
22′
Ricardo Horta 0–3
Paulinho
1–3 Silvestre Varela
C. Akas
32′
Andre Santos 🟨
36′
38′
🟨 Fransergio
45′
João Palhinha 1–4
Ricardo Horta
Half-time 1–4
Robinho 🔁
↦ Gonçalo Silva
46′
48′
Paulinho 1–5
Ricardo Esgaio
66′
🔁 Bruno Xadas
↦ Trincão
H. Ouro-Sama 🔁
↦ M. Cassierra
69′
69′
🔁 Rui Fonte
↦ Paulinho
Robinho 🟨
75′
Robinho 🟨
75′
Robinho 🟥
75′
Marco Matias 🔁
↦ Silvestre Varela
79′
83′
🔁 Wilson Eduardo
↦ Ricardo Horta
84′
Rui Fonte 1–6
Ricardo Esgaio
91′
Rui Fonte 1–7
Full-time 1–7

Line-ups

Belenenses

4-1-4-1
16 H. Koffi G
66 Nuno Coelho D
37 Gonçalo Silva D
27 C. Akas D
28 Tomás Ribeiro D
26 André Santos M
13 Tiago Esgaio M
6 Show M
7 Licá M
20 Silvestre Varela M
30 M. Cassierra F
Bench (7)
75 Robinho
15 H. Ouro-Sama
77 Marco Matias
25 Nilton Varela
9 Kikas
82 João Monteiro
49 Tomás Castro

Coach: Pedro Ribeiro

Sp Braga

3-4-3
1 Matheus Magalhães G
34 Raúl Silva D
47 Ricardo Esgaio M
5 Nuno Sequeira M
36 Bruno Viana D
3 Vítor Tormena D
27 Fransérgio M
60 João Palhinha M
20 Paulinho F
21 Ricardo Horta F
77 Trincão F
Bench (7)
10 Bruno Xadas
18 Rui Fonte
7 Wilson Eduardo
12 Tiago Sá
19 Murilo
13 Wallace
17 João Novais

Coach: Micael Sequeira

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
6,52
U
4,13
B ✓
1,49
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,89
U2,5
1,90
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Tiago Martins · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,47 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.