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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Belenenses

T T T T T

2–1

Full-time

Portimonense

T U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Portimonense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 17%

22%

11%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

9 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

4 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 18. · Portimonense 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	18	17	0	1	+37	51
2	Porto	18	14	2	2	+28	44
3	Famalicao	18	10	4	4	+8	34
4	Sp Lisbon	18	10	2	6	+10	32
5	Rio Ave	18	8	4	6	+4	28
6	Sp Braga	18	8	3	7	+6	27
7	Guimaraes	18	6	8	4	+7	26
8	Setubal	18	6	7	5	-3	25
9	Gil Vicente	18	5	8	5	+0	23
10	Vitoria Setubal	17	5	7	5	-6	22
11	Maritimo	18	4	9	5	-7	21
12	Tondela	19	5	6	8	-7	21
13	Moreirense	18	4	7	7	-4	19
14	Boavista	18	4	7	7	-5	19
15	Santa Clara	18	4	6	8	-9	18
16	Pacos Ferreira	18	4	4	10	-12	16
17	Portimonense	18	2	9	7	-12	15
18	Belenenses	18	4	3	11	-20	15
19	Aves	18	3	0	15	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+22	27
2	Porto	9	8	0	1	+21	24
3	Famalicao	9	6	2	1	+11	20
4	Gil Vicente	10	4	6	0	+7	18
5	Guimaraes	9	5	2	2	+10	17
6	Rio Ave	10	5	2	3	+5	17
7	Moreirense	8	4	2	2	+3	14
8	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+2	14
9	Setubal	9	3	5	1	+1	14
10	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	5	1	+1	14
11	Sp Lisbon	8	4	0	4	+1	12
12	Maritimo	9	2	5	2	-1	11
13	Pacos Ferreira	10	3	2	5	-2	11
14	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Aves	8	3	0	5	+1	9
16	Santa Clara	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Portimonense	8	1	4	3	-3	7
18	Belenenses	9	2	1	6	-11	7
19	Tondela	9	1	3	5	-7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	8	0	0	+15	24
2	Sp Lisbon	10	6	2	2	+9	20
3	Porto	9	6	2	1	+7	20
4	Tondela	10	4	3	3	+0	15
5	Famalicao	9	4	2	3	-3	14
6	Sp Braga	10	4	1	5	+4	13
7	Rio Ave	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Setubal	9	3	2	4	-4	11
9	Maritimo	9	2	4	3	-6	10
10	Guimaraes	9	1	6	2	-3	9
11	Santa Clara	8	2	3	3	-3	9
12	Boavista	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	2	4	-7	8
14	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-9	8
15	Portimonense	10	1	5	4	-9	8
16	Moreirense	10	0	5	5	-7	5
17	Gil Vicente	8	1	2	5	-7	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	2	5	-10	5
19	Aves	10	0	0	10	-16	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.