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Primeira Liga

Belenenses

S U T T T

0–1

Full-time

Setubal

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

38%

25%

Both score Ø 32%

38%

25%

Average goals

2,6

1,6

Scored

0,8

0,6

Conceded

1,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

10 Shots 7

1 Shots on target 4

9 Corners 3

16 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 18. · Setubal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	18	17	0	1	+37	51
2	Porto	18	14	2	2	+28	44
3	Famalicao	17	10	3	4	+8	33
4	Sp Lisbon	18	10	2	6	+10	32
5	Sp Braga	18	8	3	7	+6	27
6	Guimaraes	18	6	8	4	+7	26
7	Rio Ave	17	7	4	6	+2	25
8	Gil Vicente	17	5	7	5	+0	22
9	Tondela	18	5	6	7	-4	21
10	Maritimo	17	4	8	5	-7	20
11	Boavista	17	4	7	6	-3	19
12	Moreirense	18	4	7	7	-4	19
13	Setubal	16	4	7	5	-7	19
14	Vitoria Setubal	16	4	7	5	-7	19
15	Santa Clara	18	4	6	8	-9	18
16	Pacos Ferreira	17	4	3	10	-12	15
17	Portimonense	18	2	9	7	-12	15
18	Belenenses	16	4	3	9	-18	15
19	Aves	18	3	0	15	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+22	27
2	Porto	9	8	0	1	+21	24
3	Famalicao	8	6	1	1	+11	19
4	Gil Vicente	10	4	6	0	+7	18
5	Guimaraes	9	5	2	2	+10	17
6	Moreirense	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	Rio Ave	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+2	14
9	Setubal	9	3	5	1	+1	14
10	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	5	1	+1	14
11	Sp Lisbon	8	4	0	4	+1	12
12	Maritimo	9	2	5	2	-1	11
13	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Aves	8	3	0	5	+1	9
16	Santa Clara	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Portimonense	8	1	4	3	-3	7
18	Belenenses	7	2	1	4	-9	7
19	Tondela	8	1	3	4	-4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	8	0	0	+15	24
2	Sp Lisbon	10	6	2	2	+9	20
3	Porto	9	6	2	1	+7	20
4	Tondela	10	4	3	3	+0	15
5	Famalicao	9	4	2	3	-3	14
6	Sp Braga	10	4	1	5	+4	13
7	Rio Ave	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Guimaraes	9	1	6	2	-3	9
10	Santa Clara	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Maritimo	8	2	3	3	-6	9
12	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-9	8
13	Portimonense	10	1	5	4	-9	8
14	Moreirense	10	0	5	5	-7	5
15	Setubal	7	1	2	4	-8	5
16	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	2	4	-8	5
17	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	2	5	-10	5
18	Gil Vicente	7	1	1	5	-7	4
19	Aves	10	0	0	10	-16	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.