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Primeira Liga
Referee: Rui Costa
Benfica
S S S S S
2–0
Full-time
Belenenses
T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Belenenses
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
100%
17%
Points per game
3,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
83%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,8
1,3
Scored
3,2
0,3
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,5
-0,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 63%
100%
25%
Points per game
3,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
75%
25%
Both score Ø 38%
50%
25%
Average goals
4,0
1,0
Scored
3,3
0,5
Conceded
0,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%
15 Shots 6
6 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 2
2 Offside 6
15 Free kicks against 8
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Benfica 1. · Belenenses 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 4 4 0 0 +10 12
2 Porto 5 3 1 1 +7 10
3 Sp Lisbon 4 3 1 0 +5 10
4 Sp Braga 5 3 0 2 +3 9
5 Moreirense 5 2 2 1 +1 8
6 Santa Clara 5 2 1 2 +1 7
7 Guimaraes 5 2 1 2 +0 7
8 Nacional 5 1 3 1 +0 6
9 Maritimo 5 2 0 3 -2 6
10 Rio Ave 5 1 3 1 -2 6
11 Famalicao 5 1 3 1 -3 6
12 Belenenses 4 1 2 1 +0 5
13 Gil Vicente 4 1 2 1 +0 5
14 Pacos Ferreira 5 1 2 2 -2 5
15 Tondela 5 1 2 2 -4 5
16 Portimonense 5 1 1 3 -3 4
17 Boavista 5 0 3 2 -6 3
18 Farense 5 0 1 4 -5 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Benfica Belenenses
1–0 H. Seferović
Álex Grimaldo
6′
Half-time 1–0
L. Waldschmidt 🔁
↦ H. Seferović
58′
Pizzi 🔁
↦ A. Taarabt
58′
63′
🔁 Edi Semedo
↦ M. Cassierra
63′
🔁 Bruno Ramires
↦ Cauê
Nuno Tavares 🔁
↦ Álex Grimaldo
73′
73′
🔁 Afonso Sousa
↦ Tiago Esgaio
2–0 D. Núñez
L. Waldschmidt
75′
A. Samaris 🔁
↦ Éverton
78′
Pedrinho 🔁
↦ Rafa Silva
78′
82′
🔁 Richard Rodrigues
↦ Silvestre Varela
82′
🔁 Robinho
↦ Afonso Taira
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Benfica

4-4-2
99 O. Vlachodimos G
5 J. Vertonghen D
30 N. Otamendi D
2 Gilberto D
3 Álex Grimaldo D
49 A. Taarabt M
28 J. Weigl M
7 Éverton M
14 H. Seferović F
27 Rafa Silva M
9 D. Núñez F
Bench (9)
10 L. Waldschmidt
21 Pizzi
71 Nuno Tavares
22 A. Samaris
38 Pedrinho
33 Jardel
77 Helton Leite
88 Gonçalo Ramos
17 Diogo Gonçalves

Coach: Jorge Jesus

Belenenses

3-4-3
1 André Moreira G
26 Henrique D
5 Rúben Lima M
14 Danny Henriques D
4 Tomás Ribeiro D
8 Cauê M
20 Afonso Taira M
11 Miguel Cardoso F
13 Tiago Esgaio M
10 Silvestre Varela F
9 M. Cassierra F
Bench (8)
7 Edi Semedo
6 Bruno Ramires
28 Afonso Sousa
22 Richard Rodrigues
17 Robinho
23 S. Kritsyuk
19 Francisco Teixeira
2 Diogo Calila

Coach: Petit

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,10
U
8,68
B
23,12
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,43
U2,5 ✓
2,75
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Rui Costa · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
30,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.