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Serie A

Referee: P Giacomelli

Milan

S S S S S

3–3

Full-time

Roma

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

2,7

2,3

Conceded

0,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

0,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

53% Possession 47%

13 Shots 11

11 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 7

7 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Roma 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Milan	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Sassuolo	5	3	2	0	+7	11
4	Inter	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	Atalanta	5	3	0	2	+3	9
6	Sampdoria	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Verona	5	2	2	1	+3	8
8	Roma	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Fiorentina	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Cagliari	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Lazio	5	2	1	2	-3	7
12	Juventus	4	1	3	0	+3	6
13	Benevento	5	2	0	3	-5	6
14	Spezia	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Parma	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-5	4
17	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-2	3
18	Udinese	5	1	0	4	-4	3
19	Torino	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Crotone	5	0	1	4	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Verona	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+9	6
3	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Fiorentina	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Sassuolo	3	1	2	0	+3	5
6	Roma	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Parma	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Lazio	3	1	1	1	-2	4
10	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+2	3
12	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Inter	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Udinese	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Benevento	3	1	0	2	-3	3
18	Crotone	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Spezia	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Torino	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Sassuolo	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Milan	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Sampdoria	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Spezia	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	-2	4
9	Lazio	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Benevento	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Roma	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Juventus	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Torino	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Verona	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-6	1
17	Udinese	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Parma	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Bologna	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Crotone	3	0	0	3	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.