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Premier League

Referee: T Bramall

Man City

S S S U U

1–1

Full-time

Brighton

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 50%

65%

35%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

65%

55%

Both score Ø 55%

45%

65%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,35 xG 0,81

60% Possession 40%

22 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Brighton 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	20	15	3	2	+26	+21.6	48
2	Man City	20	13	3	4	+26	+15.7	42
3	Aston Villa	20	13	3	4	+9	-5.2	42
4	Liverpool	20	10	4	6	+4	+8.8	34
5	Chelsea	20	8	7	5	+11	+6.4	31
6	Man United	20	8	7	5	+4	+9.1	31
7	Brentford	20	9	3	8	+4	+4.6	30
8	Sunderland	20	7	9	4	+2	-11.3	30
9	Newcastle	20	8	5	7	+4	+7.4	29
10	Brighton	20	7	7	6	+3	+4.1	28
11	Fulham	20	8	4	8	-1	-3.9	28
12	Everton	20	8	4	8	-2	-7.3	28
13	Tottenham	20	7	6	7	+4	-6.5	27
14	Crystal Palace	20	7	6	7	-1	+6.1	27
15	Bournemouth	20	5	8	7	-7	+1.4	23
16	Leeds	20	5	7	8	-7	-0.4	22
17	Nott'm Forest	21	6	3	12	-13	-4.8	21
18	West Ham	21	3	5	13	-21	-14.8	14
19	Burnley	20	3	3	14	-19	-21.5	12
20	Wolves	20	1	3	16	-26	-9.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	9	1	0	+21	+13.7	28
2	Man City	10	8	1	1	+19	+10.7	25
3	Aston Villa	10	8	1	1	+10	-0.5	25
4	Brentford	10	6	3	1	+10	+4.7	21
5	Sunderland	10	5	5	0	+8	-3.7	20
6	Newcastle	10	6	2	2	+6	+7.3	20
7	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+5	+6.2	20
8	Brighton	10	5	4	1	+7	+4.0	19
9	Man United	10	5	3	2	+5	+9.1	18
10	Fulham	10	5	2	3	+5	+0.4	17
11	Leeds	10	4	4	2	+5	+6.6	16
12	Bournemouth	10	4	4	2	+4	+6.7	16
13	Chelsea	10	4	3	3	+4	+4.4	15
14	Everton	10	4	2	4	-1	-2.1	14
15	Crystal Palace	10	2	5	3	-2	+7.4	11
16	Nott'm Forest	10	3	1	6	-5	+2.3	10
17	Tottenham	10	2	3	5	+0	+0.3	9
18	Burnley	10	2	2	6	-5	-8.0	8
19	West Ham	11	2	1	8	-12	-5.8	7
20	Wolves	10	1	1	8	-13	-2.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	6	2	2	+5	+7.8	20
2	Tottenham	10	5	3	2	+4	-6.8	18
3	Man City	10	5	2	3	+7	+5.0	17
4	Aston Villa	10	5	2	3	-1	-4.7	17
5	Chelsea	10	4	4	2	+7	+2.0	16
6	Crystal Palace	10	5	1	4	+1	-1.2	16
7	Liverpool	10	4	2	4	-1	+2.6	14
8	Everton	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.2	14
9	Man United	10	3	4	3	-1	-0.0	13
10	Fulham	10	3	2	5	-6	-4.2	11
11	Nott'm Forest	11	3	2	6	-8	-7.1	11
12	Sunderland	10	2	4	4	-6	-7.6	10
13	Newcastle	10	2	3	5	-2	+0.1	9
14	Brighton	10	2	3	5	-4	+0.1	9
15	Brentford	10	3	0	7	-6	-0.1	9
16	West Ham	10	1	4	5	-9	-9.0	7
17	Bournemouth	10	1	4	5	-11	-5.3	7
18	Leeds	10	1	3	6	-12	-7.0	6
19	Burnley	10	1	1	8	-14	-13.4	4
20	Wolves	10	0	2	8	-13	-7.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.