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Premier League

Referee: D England

Brighton

S S U T S

2–1

Full-time

Man City

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,5

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,29 xG 1,84

37% Possession 63%

12 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 18. · Man City 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+6	+4.3	7
2	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.5	6
3	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+4	-0.5	6
4	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
5	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.3	6
6	Everton	3	2	0	1	+2	-1.3	6
7	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.7	6
8	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.2	4
9	Man United	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.5	4
10	Leeds	3	1	1	1	-4	-1.1	4
11	Man City	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.4	3
12	Burnley	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.6	3
13	Brentford	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.7	3
14	Crystal Palace	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
15	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.3	2
16	Fulham	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.9	2
17	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
18	Brighton	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.5	1
19	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.6	0
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.5	6
2	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
3	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
4	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+5	+2.7	3
5	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
6	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.0	3
7	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
8	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
9	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
10	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
11	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
12	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.6	3
13	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
14	Brighton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
15	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
16	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
17	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
18	Man City	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
19	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.0	0
20	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.0	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.9	3
3	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
5	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
6	Everton	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
7	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.9	3
8	Newcastle	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.0	2
9	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
10	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
11	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
12	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
13	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
14	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
15	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
16	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
17	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0
18	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.2	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.8	0
20	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.