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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Man City

S T T S T

2–1

Full-time

Brighton

S T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

4,2

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 69%

75%

63%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 82%

63%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,9

4,6

Scored

2,1

2,6

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,75 xG 0,83

55% Possession 45%

10 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 4. · Brighton 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	6	2	1	+11	+7.5	20
2	Tottenham	8	6	2	0	+10	+4.0	20
3	Arsenal	8	6	2	0	+10	+8.6	20
4	Man City	8	6	0	2	+11	+9.8	18
5	Aston Villa	8	5	1	2	+7	+2.5	16
6	Brighton	8	5	1	2	+5	+2.5	16
7	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+3	-4.1	14
8	Newcastle	8	4	1	3	+11	+9.2	13
9	Crystal Palace	8	3	3	2	+0	-1.8	12
10	Man United	8	4	0	4	-3	+0.5	12
11	Chelsea	8	3	2	3	+4	+6.9	11
12	Fulham	8	3	2	3	-5	-7.0	11
13	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-2	-3.0	9
14	Wolves	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.9	8
15	Brentford	8	1	4	3	-1	+4.3	7
16	Everton	9	2	1	6	-5	+2.4	7
17	Luton	8	1	1	6	-9	-5.2	4
18	Burnley	8	1	1	6	-13	-8.5	4
19	Bournemouth	8	0	3	5	-13	-9.8	3
20	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	-16	-13.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+9	+7.6	12
2	Arsenal	5	3	2	0	+4	+4.1	11
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+5	+1.5	10
4	Aston Villa	3	3	0	0	+11	+4.3	9
5	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.9	9
6	Newcastle	4	3	0	1	+6	+6.2	9
7	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.0	9
8	Man United	5	3	0	2	+0	+1.6	9
9	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.2	7
10	Fulham	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.6	6
11	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.2	5
12	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.6	5
13	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+1	+3.7	4
14	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.3	4
15	Everton	5	1	0	4	-1	+4.6	3
16	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.1	3
17	Bournemouth	4	0	2	2	-6	-4.7	2
18	Luton	4	0	1	3	-3	+1.1	1
19	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-10	-8.7	1
20	Burnley	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	5	3	2	0	+6	+2.0	11
2	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.5	9
3	Man City	5	3	0	2	+4	+7.9	9
4	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.2	8
5	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.2	7
6	West Ham	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.9	7
7	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.2	7
8	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.8	7
9	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.0	6
10	Fulham	4	1	2	1	-3	-4.4	5
11	Newcastle	4	1	1	2	+5	+3.0	4
12	Brentford	4	1	1	2	+1	+3.2	4
13	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.6	4
14	Burnley	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.9	4
15	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.9	4
16	Everton	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.2	4
17	Man United	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.1	3
18	Luton	4	1	0	3	-6	-6.2	3
19	Bournemouth	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.1	1
20	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	-5.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.