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Primeira Liga
Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
Tondela
T S T S T
0–1
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,0
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,2
2,0
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
2,0
0,3
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 57%
32%
82%
Points per game
1,1
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
45%
45%
Both score Ø 41%
41%
41%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
1,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

38% Possession 62%
4 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 5
2 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Tondela 11. · Sp Lisbon 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 22 18 4 0 +33 58
2 Sp Braga 22 16 1 5 +21 49
3 Porto 22 14 6 2 +25 48
4 Benfica 23 14 6 3 +23 48
5 Pacos Ferreira 22 12 5 5 +9 41
6 Guimaraes 22 10 5 7 +2 35
7 Santa Clara 23 9 4 10 +1 31
8 Moreirense 22 7 8 7 -4 29
9 Rio Ave 22 6 7 9 -7 25
10 Belenenses 23 5 10 8 -7 25
11 Tondela 22 7 3 12 -15 24
12 Portimonense 23 6 5 12 -7 23
13 Nacional 23 5 6 12 -10 21
14 Boavista 23 4 9 10 -12 21
15 Maritimo 23 6 3 14 -12 21
16 Farense 23 4 7 12 -10 19
17 Gil Vicente 22 5 4 13 -13 19
18 Famalicao 22 4 7 11 -17 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Tondela Sp Lisbon
-5′
🟥 João Pereira
Naoufel Khacef 🟨
41′
44′
🟨 Sebastián Coates
Half-time 0–0
Roberto Olabe 🟨
52′
60′
🔁 Daniel Bragança
↦ Nuno Santos
Ricardo Alves 🟨
61′
Salvador Agra 🔁
↦ N. Khacef
63′
E. Martínez 🔁
↦ Ricardo Alves
63′
73′
🔁 Bruno Tabata
↦ Z. Feddal
73′
🔁 Jovane Cabral
↦ Pedro Porro
73′
🔁 Matheus Reis
↦ João Mário
Jaume Grau 🔁
↦ João Jaquité
75′
Rafael Barbosa 🔁
↦ Roberto Olabe
80′
Pedro Augusto 🔁
↦ J. Murillo
80′
81′
Tiago Tomás 0–1
Pedro Gonçalves
85′
🔁 Matheus Nunes
↦ Pedro Gonçalves
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Tondela

5-4-1
88 Pedro Trigueira G
23 Yohan Tavares D
20 Filipe Ferreira D
34 Ricardo Alves D
24 N. Khacef D
19 Tiago Almeida D
8 João Pedro M
18 Roberto Olabe M
17 Mario González F
5 João Jaquité M
10 J. Murillo M
Bench (9)
7 Salvador Agra
21 E. Martínez
14 Jaume Grau
70 Rafael Barbosa
6 Pedro Augusto
28 A. Medioub
45 S. Anne
80 Telmo Arcanjo
99 B. Niasse

Coach: Pako Ayestarán

Sp Lisbon

3-4-2-1
1 Adán G
4 S. Coates D
3 Z. Feddal D
24 Pedro Porro M
5 Nuno Mendes M
52 Gonçalo Inácio D
17 João Mário M
6 João Palhinha M
28 Pedro Gonçalves F
11 Nuno Santos F
19 Tiago Tomás F
Bench (9)
68 Daniel Bragança
7 Bruno Tabata
77 Jovane Cabral
2 Matheus Reis
8 Matheus Nunes
13 Luís Carlos
55 Antunes
27 João Pereira
81 Luís Maximiano

Coach: Emanuel Ferro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
7,48
U
4,34
B ✓
1,43
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,85
U2,5 ✓
1,94
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida · 167 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
28,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.