Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Tondela
Sp Lisbon
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Sp Lisbon
|
22 | 18 | 4 | 0 | +33 | 58 |
| 2 |
Sp Braga
|
22 | 16 | 1 | 5 | +21 | 49 |
| 3 |
Porto
|
22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | +25 | 48 |
| 4 |
Benfica
|
23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | +23 | 48 |
| 5 |
Pacos Ferreira
|
22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | +9 | 41 |
| 6 |
Guimaraes
|
22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 35 |
| 7 |
Santa Clara
|
23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | +1 | 31 |
| 8 |
Moreirense
|
22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | -4 | 29 |
| 9 |
Rio Ave
|
22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -7 | 25 |
| 10 |
Belenenses
|
23 | 5 | 10 | 8 | -7 | 25 |
| 11 |
Tondela
|
22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -15 | 24 |
| 12 |
Portimonense
|
23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 23 |
| 13 |
Nacional
|
23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -10 | 21 |
| 14 |
Boavista
|
23 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -12 | 21 |
| 15 |
Maritimo
|
23 | 6 | 3 | 14 | -12 | 21 |
| 16 |
Farense
|
23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -10 | 19 |
| 17 |
Gil Vicente
|
22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -13 | 19 |
| 18 |
Famalicao
|
22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -17 | 19 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Coach: Pako Ayestarán
Pedro Porro
M
Nuno Mendes
M
Gonçalo Inácio
D
João Mário
M
João Palhinha
M
Pedro Gonçalves
F
Tiago Tomás
F
Coach: Emanuel Ferro
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Portimonense
Tondela
Tondela
Gil Vicente
Sp Braga
Tondela
Tondela
Maritimo
Rio Ave
Tondela
Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida · 167 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.